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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lutz Moeller who wrote (2300)	9/30/1998 8:43:00 PM
From: Tom Smith	Respond to of 4509

Good two-part overview of the ERP/EA sector and the vendors therein, from Lehman Brothers. Should be required reading for every investor in this sector. lehman.com lehman.com Tom

To: Lutz Moeller who wrote (2300)	9/30/1998 9:21:00 PM
From: mauser96	Respond to of 4509

Of course it's just a guess but I put the odds that we have seen the bottom in the general market at about 50 -50. For the immediate future PSFT will probably track the general market. The market is acting like it's forecasting a recession. As the old joke goes, the market has correctly forecast 12 of the last 8 recessions. The other side of this is that the market always goes down before a recession, and that it's forecasting record is much better than economists. I regard the Fed rate cut as purely symbolic, Fed funds still lag the market. Most of my PSFT purchases were made near the recent bottom, but I have no great degree of confidence about whether we will get an even better chance later. I raised the funds for the purchase by selling some of my SAP because I thought PSFT was a better buy. In the long run I think ERP will do fine because those that have it have an edge, that will get ever bigger as companies are more closely linked to suppliers as well as their own internal operations.