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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (29682)	10/1/1998 8:39:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

BBC report that Lisbon was halted after a 15% decline. First time halt in European Union during this crisis. London is only down 2.5% though but Germany down 6.75% so it's not a totally coordinated BK at this stage. David

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (29682)	10/1/1998 10:15:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Arik, Time for a wave count check. If we are both still on the same page, we believe that wave 1 of A began on 7/20, and completed on 9/1's low. Wave 2 picked up from there, and retraced almost exactly 50% of Wave 1, completing on the final spike high on Tuesday, 9/29. Wave 2 was a 3-3-5, With A completing on 9/9's high, B completing on 9/21's low (Rosh Hashana), Then C completing on 9/29's late day high. Since, we've begun big Wave 3 down, and I believe we completed the first minor wave down at the 11:20 am low today. We then started a wave 2 abc correction, with wave a completing at 1:10pm, and wave b completing at 3:50pm. That puts us in the c wave now, which is why globex is currently rallying. So the late day lower low today was not a further impulse wave lower, but the b wave in the wave 2 correction up. With minor wave 1 being nearly 1.5 trading days (and 2 overnight sessions), we should count on wave 2 completing in the a.m. We will have rallied nearly 20 S&P points from the 3:15pm futures low of 987 if we continue a little higher in this C wave. That should be nearly enough.... Agree? Of course, after this C wave rally washes out, we begin a 3 of 3 wave. The question is whether it is 3 of 3 of 1 of A, or 3 of 1 of 3 of 1 of A. If you believe this selloff will lst for weeks, then you have to assume the latter. That means we will not reach the best part of the selloff til we're in 3 of 3 of 3 of 1 of A. I'd like to know your thoughts on this, and whether you think the bulk of the selloff will occur before or after October option expiration. Do you prefer heavier weighting on November puts or Octobers? Regards, David