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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (29836)	10/2/1998 12:30:00 AM
From: Jay8088	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi David, I won;t go into the exact wave count. How about comparing with that '29 crash daily chart? It shows a sharp bounce from (what is now) 7,400 support. That could happen early next week finishing 1 of 3 of 3. There will be a collective sigh of relief among investors as analysts claim 'successful testing of Aug 31 low' vouched by extreme sentiment measure and oscillators. In a normal times, indeed such bounce would be bullish. However still ultra high valuations and deteriorating economic background suggest that such relief would be very short-lived. Going by '29 chart, 3 of 3 of 3 could start immediately. That would be as early as the middle of next week. So there are still 6-7 trading days till the October expiration. The week of Oct 11th could be gut wrenching for all investors. The panic may peak either on Oct 16 or 19th - 3 of 3 of 3 bottom? The last two weeks could see wave 4 and total washout at the bottom of 5 of 3. In summary despite lengthy correction wave 2, wave 3 does not have to keep with 'time stretch ratio' IMO. I think market panic of this dimension would snowball and speed up as happened in '87. However November options are definitely safer - and would be quite profitable IMO.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (29836)	10/2/1998 5:15:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Respond to of 94695

<<Of course, after this C wave rally washes out, we begin a 3 of 3 wave.>> Looks like it may have already washed out at 1107.5 on the DEC Futures in overnight Globex. 3 of 3 has arrived... Germany down 8%. Notice how the Nikkei held up. Do believe Japan has reached its bottom, and will be repatriating from U.S. markets. Yen versus Dollar should work nicely, as will long gold.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (29836)	10/2/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

David Re: Wave count We're in agreement on the 1 and 2. 1 of 1 of 3 from 9/29 just before the close to 9/30 noon, took 16 points off the OEX in 2/3 day. 2 of 1 of 3 on 9/30 from noon to around 15:00, about 3 hrs. 3 of 1 of 3 took 18 points off the OEX in half a day, till 10/1 10:30 , and the 4 took about 3 hrs again. The 5 of 1 was completed at today's lows (showing inside it a 5 count as well- a protracted 5), and took 14 points off the OEX. So I believe that the 1 of 3 is complete. 2 of 3 will be the reaction on a daily bar chart to the break of the lower line of the flag(?). 1 of 3 took 2 1/4 days and shed 41 points (8%) off the OEX. I expect the 2 will take at least 2/3 day and not more then 1 1/2 days. I agree with jay8088 that the 3 of 3 should not be a long, grinding bear, but follow in '29 footsteps. The psychology of investors demand that after we reached close to 9/1 low and dead cat bounced from it, any decline will start a snow ball rolling. It's already over two months from the high, and over a month since we broke the OEX 520 line. Stocks that seemed to be immune against gravity (esp NDX high flyers), have recently (since the beginning of the 3) to participate and even lead the down moves- look at MSFT, YHOO, DELL, CSCO, LU in the last three days. From the look of the beginning of this 2 of 3, it is quite possible that it'll end by 14:30 today, and the 3 of 3 will begin before the close today. ATG