part of Cory's interview:
Market Features: Cory Johnson's Yahoo! Chat Transcript
By Yahoo Chatters
9/29/98 7:32 PM ET
Got questions about tech? Want to know how the West Coast is reacting to recent markets? A former sports and crime reporter and day trader, TSC West Coast Bureau Chief Cory Johnson will offer his point of view on everything from tech stocks to Y2K. If you'd like more information about TSC chats on Yahoo!, send mail to chats@thestreet.com.
TSCEllen: Welcome to today's chat. Ladies and gentlemen, he's just flown in from New York (and boy are his arms tired) -- a man who needs much introduction ... Cory Johnson.
coryjohn: Howdy.
TSCEllen: Let's get things started with an easy one.
coryjohn: Any questions?
CEBOYY: Y2K -- what is that?
coryjohn: Y2K is the year 2000 problem. It'll plague computers far and wide
pooja32: Hey cory, what do think about 3Com, long and short.
coryjohn: COMS seems to have come off a long string of bad news but it's hard to say if it's all over yet. last quarter looked good though
Steel_Troy: How would a young investor get started on investing in tech stocks?
coryjohn: At the risk of being self promoting, reading TheStreet.com is the kind of thing that can help. You need to know what's going on out there So read, research and think about what kind of time horizon you're investing for. Do you need the money next year or 10 years out? That's a good way to gauge your own risk tolerance.
banker_27: what tech stocks do you like for the long-haul?
coryjohn: I don't give individual stock recommendations -- and if I did, you wouldn't want them. I'm just a reporter and editor. But big companies that turn slowly can offer you a safer investment -- with more chance to get out if you're wrong.
gonchvolant: New Yorkers make a big deal out of Silicon Alley, how do you find it compares with the Valley?
coryjohn: Silicon Alley tends to be media focused. Content, ideas, advertising. But here in the Bay Area, we're more focused on silicon and hardware. Even the Net is more focused on commerce and tools ... and when I say tools, I'm not talking about clueless Internet reporters
Mad_Dog59: Where do you see LU going? The sector seems to be mired, with the Tellabs/Ciena problems, but LU is probably still the strongest company in the sector. Time to accumulate on this recent price slump??
coryjohn: Lucent is the 800 lbs in this space -- well, LU and CSCO. But like I said, I can't recommend stocks. LU, of course, is about to get the cuffs off, more able to do aquisitions fairly soon. So we'll have a better clue as to what markets they're looking at.
katiegreatie: So what's the verdict on the iMac now that the initial hype is over? Is this going to be Apple's savior?
coryjohn: I think it already HAS been AAPL's savior. I think they're selling them as fast as they can make them. I don't see why that would slow down anytime soon.
banker_27: how much money will you have in your pocket (withdrawn from bank) at end of 1999? (This is a big concern of banks).
coryjohn: I will have cash in hand. Year 2000 is no joke. Bob Austrian, a smart analyst with Montgomery Securities here in San Francisco, says that the US banks don't have enough currency in supply for every American to withdraw $10,000 in cash. So it is indeed a potential concern for banks.
judyball_98: what is your take on asian isps
coryjohn: Don't know a damn thing about it. Are there any publicly traded Asian ISPs?
Paul_Kariya_Rocks: I have trouble understanding what in the hell these high-tech companies make. Do I have to be an engineer or software designer to invest in high-tech?
coryjohn: Don't they do a lousy job of explaining themselves? If I see a "total turnkey provider of solution management" again, I think I'll yack. The key to investing in Tech stocks --- or any stocks -- is understanding the basic principle of the company. You don't have to know what a Cisco router does. But you do have to know that other companies will need to buy them and that CSCO is having success at selling them. If that's too much information for you, you should indeed stay far away.
OhDannyBoy_98: What do you think of the recent statement by the Merrill exec that online investing is dangerous?
coryjohn: As Sun's Scott McNealy says "you either eat lunch or you are lunch" If Merill doesn't get hip to the Net, they will be lunch. Or breakfast toast.
suntzu112: But what about Buffet's adage: "If I didn't understand something, I wouldn't invest in it"?
coryjohn: Buffet's right. But he's also dumb as a fox. By all accounts, he understands alot -- including self-promotion. I'm sure he'll make some sort of Internet investment at some point.
NotNeiderhoffer: Cory, do you see the power of the west coast brokers diminishing now that they are owned by lame banks? Might we see a new brokerage started by alumni of montgomery or Robby stephens?
coryjohn: Victor! He's back! Yes. There will SURELY be new firms opened here. Robby and Montgomery seem to be moving into the role of big investment banking firms -- grown ups -- but that, ironicly, leaves their old place in small caps up for grabs. Some one will take it.
Mad_Dog59: What impact do you see the EuroDollar having on US markets, in both the short or long term??
coryjohn: Hell if I know, but I'll bet it will start to open up European business to more US style technological upgrades. I think they'll be bigger buyers of tech products. And longterm, I think Euro companies will look more understandable to US investors, and therefore more attractive.
greatfalls1: I am interested in Computer Associates - are you familiar????
coryjohn: A little bit. What do you want to know?
gonchvolant: Is there such a thing as an internet value play?
coryjohn: Well, Amy, I'm glad you asked. No. But there IS a way to value Internet companies. You need to look at their cost of acquiring customers. Then compare that to their cost of doing business. AMZN either is or is not a viable stock to own based on how much money they have to spend to get their customers. Get it?
suntzu112: Cory, have you heard of "Research in Motion Inc."'s new Inter@ctive 2-way e-mail pager? (It's being marketed under Bellsouth's wireless network) If so, would you see it as having hotly marketable functionality??
coryjohn: No, haven't heard about it. Sounds too geeky for me.
CAD513: How do you feel about Dell Stock? Would you buy at this price?
coryjohn: As a TheStreet.com employee, I am not permitted to buy stocks. Indeed, I had to sell DELL when I took this job two years ago this week. .... sorry, I just had to crawl off the ledge. Buying DELL hasn't been a mistake for a LONG time, that's all I can tell you. BTW, split adjusted, Dell was selling at 4 3/4 two years ago today.
danofag: Can Yahoos' stock price keep climbing?
coryjohn: Sure! Or it can fall off a cliff. You should know that big time investors are THRILLED about their 30% operating margin. They announced that at the Montgomery Securities Conference two weeks ago -- which we reported in on TheStreet.com -- And a hedge fund mananger that never lets me quote him on the record said... "Cory, this is on the @&%#@-ing record: Yahoo is the best company I've ever seen." And I said "Chris, aren't you long 1 million shares." Says he: "I wish I could have more!"
NemaHashemi: how has the new expansion of TheStreet.com helped your coverage of internet stocks and tech in general?
coryjohn: We hired terrific Internet reporter away from news.com (Suzanne Galante) and now have seven people covering tech full time out here in the West Coast bureau. We aim to provide tech stock coverage that you just can't find anywhere else. And we ain't done yet. And the new wood chairs out here look great. Thanks.
OhDannyBoy_98: Does the fed rate cut mean anything to techs? Most are equity-financed, not debt-financed, right?
coryjohn: These guys ALL borrow money, so lower Interest rates can only help. Indeed, in a more troubled IPO/secondary market, tech companies might find the cost of borrowed capital cheaper
BAGMAN1997: What are your views on CIEN?
coryjohn: Cienna is still one of the most important companies in the tech Wave division multiplexing -- a market they STILL own, though it's challenged -- will continue to be the dominant tool for old world telcos to stay competitive
Steel_Troy: How are companies preparing for Y2K...will we have to empty our accounts on 12/31/99 or are things under control?
coryjohn: I'm not going to panic -- and you shouldn't either. But I'm also not going to wait that long to get liquid. Ed Yardeni, the respected strategist from DMG, says that there's a 60% chance for a global recession resulting from y2k Things are NOT under control. I'd even bet good money (if I had some) that some things that SEEM under control aren't. Steel, when have YOU known a tech project to get completed on time? See, no one's getting an extention of Y2K problems. But companies across every industry are spending billions on y2k fixes. No way they all get done right and on time. Companies are already implementing triage fixes. I hope they work. The Bank of Boston told me a year ago -- we won't get it all done, but we'll still be open if the bank vault won't open electronicly, we'll just stick a brick in the door. 'spose that's good news, but not too comforting.
GLSmyth: Cory, with eBay being one of the few Internet stocks actually making money, do you see this as a viable issue, or did it open too high? Thanks - george
coryjohn: Investors I talk to say that eBay has "stickyness" -- that is, customers like it and stay with it. So that's a good thing, I suppose. online auctions are an increasingly competitive space, however, now that Yahoo! has partnered with Onsale.
thx_90: Do you like Qwest (QWST)?
coryjohn: You mean Quincy Jones' defunct recording label? Love it. Brother's Johnson were my faves. Liked the syrupy Patti Austin too. Oh, yeah, the telco. Joe Nachhio is a hero to mutual fund investors, I can tell you that. It's like a fan club when he speaks to them. Who knew a former AT&T guy could have a personality? But a few fund managers have cautioned me that the stock is trading a rich multiple.
heidef: How are the brokerage firms, the NYSE, Nasdaq, etc. fairing in getting their Y2K act together?
coryjohn: They seem to be ahead of most other industries, from what I hear. I think, and I'm out on a limb here, that the exchanges, banks and brokerages will get their houses in order. But I'm worried about the US government, utilities, second and third tier companies they don't have the resources -- and often lack the smarts -- to figure out how this will impact them and what to do about it. Let alone to execute such fixes. And I'm worried about Quincy Jones. I mean, his VIBE TV show stunk.
banker_27: How do you like TSC compared to sports reporting?
coryjohn: Traders are just as difficult, surly, rich and full of themselves. But at least I get to interview them when they're fully dressed. No more sweaty locker rooms is just fine with me. And the market never goes into extra innings! |
