"...volume will decrease " ?? Geoff, & all, look at demographics.
There is no support, a priori, to insist that a volume will decrease,
.
If you look at the population numbers, for example, the number
of 14-16 years olds, and the 17-19 year olds, as two subgroups, extrapolate a constant percent(using tobacco)(why a constant, why not a negative?...can you prove that these subgroups will use less tobacco??Nobody knows} of that population foward, say, 48 months, the result is actually a increase in volume.
AND, obviously, in 4 years, the 17-19 year olds are young adults
( with different future lifestyles , etc...nobody can know)
My point, is that many hidden abstract things,(management,balance sheet, larger sub groups of the population with different lifesyles, etc..all come together to favor MO as an very important consumer product company.
Studying populations, is not everyone's cup of tea. It is a subject
largely, unaddressed except for short term marketing campaigns, but, I recommend this subject matter, when the discussion hinges around, estimates of price/demand elasticities.
The sub-group populations 14-16 year olds, and 17-19 year olds
are significant population bubbles moving as a group along
the time line. Not only, are they of significant size,
[witness the crowding of high-schools, and the increase of
property taxes assessed around the country....Voters increasingly
complain of both higher taxes and others complain high school fiscal structure, can not take the student burden...people in my neck of the woods, are beginning to realize that the primary grades will also
explode onto a secondary school system, ill-prepared to
handle the numbers].
Unlike, many countries of the world, we contine to grow,
the so called phenomenon of the "baby boomers" of post WWII will occur again, soon, in another framework, now.
By the way, does everyone realize, that at present population
growth rates, Italy will have NO Italians by the year 2070.
And, that by the year 2100. There will be no Japanese! The both
currently are running a negative birth rate.
...What did he say ??!! Yup, according to current world
population growth rates. ( I may be off by 5-15 years, but
the Japanese, and the Italians ain't making babies fast enough!
Other countries too!
Hmmmm...?!?...The mind boggles ! Strange but true.
In the long run, say 7-15 years, if you do not have a significant
number of shares in MO now, you may miss one of the few real
(not speculative not lotteries) wealth making factories.
dk |
