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Non-Tech : Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: don kramer who wrote (2439)	10/2/1998 8:56:00 AM
From: Geoff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6439

DK, as usual, you are 100% correct. We don't know for sure if tobacco use will decline, or to what extent. However, to be realistic, IMHO we need to assume that there will a slight shrinkage in overall volume, but this does not mean that MO's volume will not remain the same or even increase. I don't like to make assumptions, especially negative ones, but it allows me to be pleasantly surprised when things are better than expected. And in this current market, I think we can all use a little pleasant surprise ;) As for the loss of the Italians and the Japanese towards the end of next century -- that's too bad. I'm 50% Italian, and will dearly miss the terrific food my bretheren and ancestors have been making for hundreds of years. Then again, I'd be 95 in the year 2070, so I probably won't be eating much Veal or Sausage anymore :( choo choo, geoff

To: don kramer who wrote (2439)	10/2/1998 1:46:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6439

Well, Italy and Japan may have negative birth-rates, but look at India -- populations are simply exploding there. And so is the consumption of tobacco. When I visited the southern Indian city of Bangalore earlier this year, no sooner had I set foot in the airport than a smoker "garlanded" me with a ring of smoke right on my face! And people can smoke pretty much anywhere -- inside airports, cinema theaters, buses, office buildings, on the streets... you name it! The problem is (or maybe, I should call it an "opportunity" instead of calling it a "problem"!) there are a lot of low-cost brands in India that are more popular than Marlboros. A roadside cigarette vendor told me that Marlboros are considerably more expensive than the other brands -- Gold Flake, Wills, Charms etc., and therefore the sales are quite sluggish. Perhaps MO should acquire a few companies in India. There is very little doubt that India will be a huge, huge, humongously HUGE market. Dipy.