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Pastimes : John Dessauer's Investors World -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nicholas Varthas who wrote (1608)	10/2/1998 2:08:00 AM
From: Ralph C. Cinque	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2346

ESF may well be going down because of the global sell-off and not particularly for any other reason. And I'm sure the same is true for many stocks. Dessauer says that STD has no Russian exposure and little South American exposure, doesn't have bad loans to write off, yet it is getting absolutely pummelled, having lost over 50% of its value in a short period of time. It's obvious that Dessauer did not expect the global sell-off to last this long or go this deep, or for many of his stocks to get crushed the way they have. But if he had known, I wonder what he would have advised? Recently on the hotline he remarked that the right thing to do during the 73-74 bear market was to hold. To say that looking forward is one thing, but to say that in hindsight is something else. To my knowledge, the 73/74 bear market was the worst bear market since the Great Depression. If the second-worst bear market of the century wasn't worth avoiding, (even in principle) I wonder if there are any bear markets worth avoiding in his eyes? As long as the world isn't coming to an end, and there is still hope for future, you don't try to dodge bear markets. Period. That seems to be his philosophy. At this point, I don't claim to know what is going to happen. But I do know that it wouldn't break a law of physics for this market to keep going steeply down, and I think we should at least be prepared for the possibility.