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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (29863)	10/1/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: The Perfect Hedge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

bobby- would you buy calls on HM yet or wait for a bottom in this market? TIA... Beebs*

To: bobby beara who wrote (29863)	10/2/1998 12:03:00 AM
From: Joseph G.	Respond to of 94695

bb, you live in wrong country -g- <<FRANKFURT, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Germany's stock market skidded on Thursday below its 1997 closing level and while analysts said darker days were yet to come, most believed the slide would halt and recovery return before year end. But some warned the DAX's recent fall was starting to bear a scary resemblance to the 1929 Wall Street crash. The German index has lost more than 30 percent in six weeks and eight percent in two days. From its peak in September 1929, Wall Street plunged 48 percent in 10 weeks after the stock market crash which heralded the start of the "Great Depression". Since hitting a record high of 6,224.52 points on July 21, the electronic Xetra DAX index of 30 blue-chip shares has lost more than 33 percent of its value. By 1430 GMT it was at 4,212.89 points, after falling as low as 4,132.14, well under last year's closing level of 4,224.30. Nine analysts surveyed by Reuters said the 4,000 level would offer strong support but three of them believed the market would fail to bounce off this level in the short-term. "The trouble is we've broken the start of the new year and basically it's not going to get any better," said Paul Lewis, technical analyst at BNP in Frankfurt. "There is no reason why it can't overshoot 4,000 even by 1,000 points with this panic in the market," he added. The remaining two-thirds of those polled saw the 4,000 level as a positive turning point with consolidation likely between 4,200 and 4,500 points. "We hoped that the 4,400 point level would hold. But the insecurity of the market is stronger than we believed," said Michael Schubert, analyst at Bankgesellschaft Berlin. "With further international irritation, a fall to the 4,000 level is conceivable," he said, adding that the bank's forecast of 5,200 points for the 1998 DAX close still stood. But gloom persisted amid global financial crises and falls in world equity markets, spooked late Wednesday by an International Monetary Fund report that warned of the risk of a possible global recession. Significant DAX support levels had been mowed down and ongoing emerging market crises and corporate profit warnings threatened to raze remaining defences and bring further ruin within months, some analysts said. "Looking at the long-term picture, take the worst case, look at what happened in 1929. We're down by about 30 percent so we're half way through," said Michael Geiger, German equity strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston in London. "I can't tell you when it will be the end. The market is not worthwhile buying. We are heading south. In today's world it could take about four months only (to match 1929 percentage losses), if it falls at the same rate as today." Short-term support was seen around 4,175 points -- already broken -- and chartists said a bear market had definitely arrived if it remained below this level for about a week. Support would also be found around 4,100 points. Bank Julius Baer equity strategist, Gerhard Grebe, said recovery was on the cards because the market's weakness was largely triggered by rumours and the extent of investor's alarm was not founded. "This is a sellout and it's not justified. There are too many rumours about the failure of banks. It's gone a bit far. Like last week it will fall and then probably go up the next day, fall again and so on," Grebe said. "I think that we will bottom around 4,000. Profit warnings will fade out and the market will get accustomed to this too. Give about four to six weeks and then we have to get more positive news on bank restructuring in Japan," he said. >>

To: bobby beara who wrote (29863)	10/2/1998 12:18:00 AM
From: Death Sphincter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

Bobby....better pull the chest out from under your bed and blow the dust off of your propeller beenie.....this thing is getting close for a BIG RALLY......i have put on my socks and underwear...no longer trading in the nude.........shirt, pants, hat, gloves, overcoat, comforter, electric blanket, dog at feet, doused my house in gasoline, have enema full of molten lead and ready...it's gonna get HOT semi-naked and gettin ready to go LONG carl