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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Stitch who wrote (4608)10/2/1998 10:04:00 AM
From: Mark Oliver  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 9256
 
Thanks Stitch. I did learn something which is there is a lot of competition for this niche I never could have learned about without attending Diskcon. Now, I have to also remember that the market thinks this is a straight play where either Hutchinson or Innovex wins( and it may still be). The added knowledge will help, but being too smart makes it harder to understand how the street thinks.

Does that make sense?

An example was that clearly many people would have purchased Read Rite when they heard APM was having problems. They had no idea that many other companies had heads to sell. That could have helped you understand a rally that took place last year, but then faded away once the real earnings continued to disappoint as they had to. People make decisions on minimal information.

Anyway, I came away with the feeling that Hutchinson has made good progress with their manufacturing process and they'll start to make enough volume to be profitable next quarter. Maybe they will even surprise this quarter and say something about volume that could give a good rally. They are so confident, they are sending letters to customers saying e won't have conventional suspensions soon, so either switch to TSA or get a second source.

I like to see Htch trading down now and setting up for a good conference call at earnings. I'm thinking it will probably be a better bet to shift money out of Quantum and into Hutch. I was hoping to get 17 1/2, but the market chopped QNTM when the ATL deal was completed.

I am still uncomfortable with the fact that HTCH seemed to have botched the development of TSA for so long and missed targets for nearly a year. They have taken on great debt to compensate. They added a lot of machines to make up for poor through put. That could mean most of the equipment is in place for a great run now, but it has not been handled well getting to this point.

HTCH is also an exclusively US producer competing with Asia. I wonder if this will hurt them, or will automation make this less of a factor? Magnacomp had an interesting plan to develop and sell CAPS. They could be worth watching.

Regards,

Mark



To: Stitch who wrote (4608)10/8/1998 3:48:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9256
 
FEI Co. received a multiple-unit order of approximately $5.5 million for its DualBeam systems from a leading U.S. manufacturer of data storage and semiconductor products. The systems each offer multiple capabilities, emphasizing high-resolution imaging, material removal, deposition and analysis through integration of FEI's SEM and FIB technologies. Delivery is scheduled later this year and will be used for process control and development in the manufacture of thin-film heads and other components used in data storage products.

Stitch, is this related to building a new head fab? Not sure I understand what is being sold here, but when I've seen the booths for FEI, they show major fluid/gas handling systems that would seem to be geared more for a new fab than improving an existing fab.

Do you see much move toward increased wafer size? It would seem like the device shrink continues to make smaller wafers very productive.

Regards,

Mark

PS I was hoping to get your views on the impact of currency. Looks like Singapore got some advantage recently. Do you want to see a stronger yen weaker dollar scenario?