To: Stitch who wrote (4608 ) 10/2/1998 10:04:00 AM From: Mark Oliver Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 9256
Thanks Stitch. I did learn something which is there is a lot of competition for this niche I never could have learned about without attending Diskcon. Now, I have to also remember that the market thinks this is a straight play where either Hutchinson or Innovex wins( and it may still be). The added knowledge will help, but being too smart makes it harder to understand how the street thinks. Does that make sense? An example was that clearly many people would have purchased Read Rite when they heard APM was having problems. They had no idea that many other companies had heads to sell. That could have helped you understand a rally that took place last year, but then faded away once the real earnings continued to disappoint as they had to. People make decisions on minimal information. Anyway, I came away with the feeling that Hutchinson has made good progress with their manufacturing process and they'll start to make enough volume to be profitable next quarter. Maybe they will even surprise this quarter and say something about volume that could give a good rally. They are so confident, they are sending letters to customers saying e won't have conventional suspensions soon, so either switch to TSA or get a second source. I like to see Htch trading down now and setting up for a good conference call at earnings. I'm thinking it will probably be a better bet to shift money out of Quantum and into Hutch. I was hoping to get 17 1/2, but the market chopped QNTM when the ATL deal was completed. I am still uncomfortable with the fact that HTCH seemed to have botched the development of TSA for so long and missed targets for nearly a year. They have taken on great debt to compensate. They added a lot of machines to make up for poor through put. That could mean most of the equipment is in place for a great run now, but it has not been handled well getting to this point. HTCH is also an exclusively US producer competing with Asia. I wonder if this will hurt them, or will automation make this less of a factor? Magnacomp had an interesting plan to develop and sell CAPS. They could be worth watching. Regards, Mark