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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (14305)	10/2/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Prof	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

So - what last hour scalping plays does anyone suggest? Shorted REXI today @ 9 5/8

To: craig crawford who wrote (14305)	10/2/1998 2:48:00 PM
From: vegetarian	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Assuming that the markets are a future discounting mechanism, wouldn't the best economy be occuring in proximity to the top of the market ? just that sentence means that the economy has been great without refernce to what might hold in the future? why could that be so problematic? now if he said the future for the economy will remain as bright it may be a problem, but they are talking of saving the world from a future economic meltdown...

To: craig crawford who wrote (14305)	10/4/1998 6:46:00 PM
From: joe	Respond to of 18691

>>Bingo! I wonder how history will look back on the Fed Chairman saying this was the best economy in 50 years...right at the top of the market! Would be awfully ironic considering how high a pedestal we put Greenspan on.<< Yes, well it might be the case that stock market busts are preceded by euphoria. Something that would be useful, is a signal to LET US KNOW WHEN. Greenspan, and so many respectable economists have been saying that our economic markets are at all time highs for who knows how long...6 months, 1 year, longer?? Most economists are in an agreement. Low inflation, low interest rates, etc. So, this doesn't do us any good, because if he says it long enough, of course he'll be right. And it's hard to use an indicator that lasts for 6 months or more. Also, his indicator is like saying, "nothing perfect last for ever"...quite trite, but true. Just another reason for all of us to keep on our toes, but hey, is there ever a reason not to keep on ones toes when it comes to the market? One last thing...I forget the exact words, but Greenspan said that the market is at an extremely fragile mode to due the combination of the danger of complicated derivatives and imbalances in foreign markets (if it wasn't for Russia, he would never have gotten involved in LTC fiasco for example). That was the most danger tone I've every heard from him. I don't think Congress or the press or the market reacted to that very much ( I could be wrong about this interpretation). But sometimes, the sign of a top is when there is a "prophet" of significance, giving some warning, and not being believed or heard. That's what I took away from his Congressional speech more than anything.