Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2427)	10/2/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: GJD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

C. Phillips in his research report said he expects PSFT will not meet his license revenue growth target of 46%. He now expects growth of 42% for 3rd Q and 38% for 4th Q. For '99 he expects license revenue growth of 36%. He cut his '98 eps by 0.01 to 0.64. (IBES est is 0.66). Doesn't look like a disaster for a stock that is down from 57 to 24. The market always overreacts on the upside and downside. If the above is true, this is more an overreaction in a bad market. We'll have to wait for the Co. to report and provide some visibility into '99. At that point the market will get a better feel for license growth rates. Lehman still expects ERP market growth of 35%, PSFT should easily grow faster than the market.

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2427)	10/2/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: Paul Barr	Respond to of 4509

Here are my notes from the Conference Call PSFT held: -Believe that their products are recession resistent -Had not changed there plan of adding 700 people this quarter... -Their win rate over SAP had improved - PSFT position is the best it has ever been -Release 8.0 should take further share from SAP -PSFT 7.5 for global customers, includes Euro tools -SAP 24.9 PSFT 8.5 = current market share - #2 ahead of ORCL -Business in Japan, projected for 1999 to be substantial -Service revenue will NOT affect the PSFT's current margins -In the 2nd quarter, gross deferred license revenue INCREASED, not decreased, as some analysts, stated -PSFT sees the ERP market continuing to grow at 37% per year -PSFT reiterated 60-65% revenue growth for 3rd quarter -PSFT reiterated 18-20% margins for 3rd quarter -PSFT will release in its 3rd quarter earnings, its 1999 outlook -Y2000 should have a neutral effect on company -Y2000 decisions should be made by most companies by year end -$550 million in cash -PSFT continues to look at specific acquistions(market), may see some in the next 6-9 months -Opportunites for continued growth include: -online transaction processing -int'l expansion -OLAP(40% growth rate) -information access/web technologies I hope this helps a little bit. One analyst that seems to have been the most on the mark about PSFT is Brian Skiba of Lehman...everything that he has written about PSFT as been extremely accurate...He recently wrote a great positive industry overview of ERP...he seems to be in the minority about the strength of the market... One interesting note that he mentioned in July, when PSFT was starting to crater, was that PSFT was considering a stock buyback, but that it would not do it until at least the end of this quarter... We will see... Hope this all helps... Paul