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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (19771)	10/3/1998 12:18:00 AM
From: JBL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Glen : The only reason the market rallied today is on the hopes that the G7 will find a magical solution to ensure continued growth next year. There will be no magical solution, as this is a banking crisis : too much money has been lent recklessly around the world, and it will take time, adjustments and restructuring to get solved. South Korea is a prime example of what I'm talking about : the South Korean governmemt directed industry to take market share in certain sectors and provided them with incredibly cheap money to do that. These groups took market share by operating with razor thin margins. With the first bump on the road (start of Asian crisis last year), Koreans banks almost went belly up. They were saved by a $ 60 Billion package from the IMF and a promise of restructuring. No matter what is decided in Washington next tuesday, there is absolutely no way for Japan to jump start its economy and the region's economy and clean up its banks problems at the same time. Some people will think the $ 100 billion they may agree upon will be enough to keep growth in the US and Europe intact. These people are wrong. The only things the G7 can do is avoid a financial meltdown. They cannot avoid the global credit crunch coming in 1999 for much of the world. This is not a correction and we are nowhere close to bottom.