To: Eddie Kim who wrote (68980 ) 10/3/1998 1:01:00 PM From: JRI Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
<By the end of next week, DELL might be in the $40s again> Eddie, IMO, the only way this is going to happen is if the Naz closes down another 200 points this week, and the Dow breaks 7300...and even then, Dell might not hit the 40's.... BTW- Didn't you just predict last week that Dell was going to hit 45? Now, it's "maybe" the 40's...What will you be saying next Saturday? A more likely bet, I think, is a flat to up Naz this week....I believe Intel reports, and the earnings should be good...Lot of bad news hit the marketplace this past week........Likely that this week will be better (Cardoso is a shoo-in for Brazil,etc.)....As for Dell in the coming weeks, I can't think of a better positioned stock.....it might not explode, but a big decline (in a flat market) sees highly unlikely...For the first time (in a while), its competitors may EXCEED street estimates (save HP)...and Intel should be reporting well....We are in the cyclical 2nd half upswing for the PC industry...lots of good news on the wires lately....how many industry segments can say that (lately)? Concerning CPQ and Dell....Look, both are going to be stomping on the competition (and a little on each other) in the coming quarters....The rest (of the PC group, outside Dell and CPQ) looks lost to me....Concerning inventory: As long as CPQ maintains inventory in the channel, their (past) sales figures are overstated...even if one assumes that every unit in the channel get (eventually) sold, CPQ is not technically, but, I would claim from an "investor's viewpoint" pre-booking sales...but let's not quibble, CPQ took the big hit these last two quarters, and going forward (as long as current channel inventory doesnt rise) IDC's numbers should be pretty good for comparison... In my opinion, all other things being equal, Dell's stock should always enjoy a little premium to CPQ (or CPQ a discount to Dell) due to this issue. With Dell, the sales figures are simply cleaner.....More lucid accounting has to worth something, right?