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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Riggs who wrote (33307)	10/3/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 132070

>>Are there any ways you find it useful.<< makes for good joke material ;-)

To: John Riggs who wrote (33307)	10/3/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

John, I find TA of no use whatsoever, except for a chuckle. But, to be fair, my problem is not with the concept of technical analysis as with the fact that folks believe what TA tells them without ever putting it to any scientific test. The best you get is back-testing, which is totally useless. Back-testing is how I handicap horses, so I know its weaknesses. <G> Here is what we need to make TA a rational school of investing. Some technical analyst has to manage a real money public portfolio and outperform using TA methods. None ever has. The TA superstars who have gone into fund management have fallen on their faces. Zweig and Value Line are probably the most notable. They failed to the point where Marty himself no longer manages the funds and where the VL funds do not use VL methodology. Now, many have done very well with paper portfolios and model portfolios, but that is hardly the same thing. Value Line is again a good example of this fallacy. TA is not the only system that needs some testing. I think Wall Street analysts should be put to a real world test. Using their recommendations in real time (when you can really effect transactions, not "buying" on paper Friday after the close when there is news and then saying you have a profit when it opens up on Monday morning <G>) by a real customer who gets the word at the same time other real customers get the word. I think the capabilities of analysts would come under a lot of fire if real world studies were done of recommendations. Most of TA and even a lot of the worship of fundamental analysts on the Street remind me of B.F. Skinner's "Religion In The Pigeon." Something is seen to have a relationship to making a gain when in reality, chaos and coincidence are not given their just due. MB