>>I agree that Campbell is bright and very intellectual, but he has absolutely no
personality. Barney is glib, easy-going, and interesting
I dunno, I'm not lookin for a date.<g>
Looks like Californians are starting to get it, straight from California's most respected pollster:
Field, dean of California pollsters, had weeks ago
predicted such a slide, saying his studies of state
public opinion were reflecting trends seen during
the development of President Richard Nixon's
Watergate scandal.
''Since mid-September, when Starr made his
report public and all the details were revealed,'' in
both videotapes and transcript, Clinton has steadily
suffered a marked decline in public support that
suggests no sign of reversal, said Field.
'''As I look back at Watergate . . . the public
started believing that maybe Nixon was involved,
(and) once there was documentation, the support
started dropping,'' Field has noted.
President's Rating Down Across State
Latest Field Poll finds 'steady, marked
erosion'
Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer
San Francisco Chronicle
Monday, October 5, 1998
President Clinton's support in his political
stronghold of California has steadily eroded in
recent weeks, with his job approval rating sliding
and more people expressing dislike of him, a new
Field Poll shows.
While 57 percent still approve of the chief
executive's job performance, a growing number --
38 percent -- both disapprove and believe he will
not be effective if he stays in office.
The findings released yesterday document ''a
steady and marked erosion'' in Clinton's public
support statewide in the wake of the Monica
Lewinsky scandal, said pollster Mervin Field.
''Clinton and his aides and lawyers have been able
to stem the tide running against them . . . now their
ability to withstand the tide seems to be in
question.''
The stark evidence of growing irritation with
Clinton in California, with no end to the slide in
sight, may have profound implications for the
president.
''This is a state where you would expect Clinton to
be doing better than the rest of the nation,'' said
Field, noting that Clinton has returned to the
nation's most populous state 41 times in his
administration, largely because of the wide support
he has enjoyed in campaign and fund-raising trips.
Although most Californians support a congressional
censure of Clinton, sizable numbers of voters --
though not majorities -- still oppose impeachment
or resignation, the poll shows.
Yet California voters -- while increasingly
disapproving of Clinton -- ''still don't see
(independent counsel) Kenneth Starr as a hero,''
Field said.
The poll shows 53 percent still disapprove of
Starr's overall job performance, compared to 40
percent who approve, a number that has held
surprisingly steady in the face of the revelations
regarding Clinton. And far more voters (57
percent) still believe Starr is more interested in
hurting Clinton than finding the truth (35 percent).
Field, dean of California pollsters, had weeks ago
predicted such a slide, saying his studies of state
public opinion were reflecting trends seen during
the development of President Richard Nixon's
Watergate scandal.
''Since mid-September, when Starr made his
report public and all the details were revealed,'' in
both videotapes and transcript, Clinton has steadily
suffered a marked decline in public support that
suggests no sign of reversal, said Field.
'''As I look back at Watergate . . . the public
started believing that maybe Nixon was involved,
(and) once there was documentation, the support
started dropping,'' Field has noted.
CONTEMPLATION OF
IMPEACHMENT
The current poll shows that in California, while they
are still not in the majority, ''the public is
contemplating (impeachment and resignation) more
than they had before,'' Field said.
Among the findings of the latest Field Poll:
-- Clinton's job performance rating -- considered a
critical measure of his strength in office -- has
dropped to 57 percent, with a 38 percent
disapproval rating. That compares to February,
when his job approval rating was 65 to 28. ''It only
looks like eight points . . . but it's a huge drop,''
said Field, because the gap has shrunk so
dramatically between those numbers in a relatively
short time.
-- 42 percent of voters now say they dislike Clinton
''somewhat'' or ''a lot,'' compared to 39 percent
who say they like him a lot or somewhat. Last
February, those numbers were almost reversed.
-- Before the release of the Starr report, voters
were evenly divided (45 to 45) on Clinton's
explanation of his affair with Lewinsky. Now,
nearly half are dissatisfied and 38 percent are
satisfied.
-- Fewer voters now believe Clinton will be
effective if he remains in office. In February, a solid
77 percent held to that belief; it dropped to 68
percent in August, following Clinton's speech to the
nation on his relationship with Lewinsky; it now
stands at 60 percent, the poll shows. ''The key
thing, and the dismaying thing for the country, is the
(drop in) confidence levels'' that the numbers
reflect, said Field.
-- A solid majority (57 percent) still favors censure
or reprimand of Clinton, and allowing him to remain
in office -- but 59 percent of voters do not believe
Congress should drop its probe or action against
Clinton, the poll shows. While they are not in the
majority, ''it's a sign when you get as many people
as this (36 percent) saying to impeach him -- and
39 percent saying he should resign,'' said Field.
''It's very significant.''
-- Californians are split on their views of the work
of the House Judiciary Committee in handling the
probe of the sex scandal. By a 42-to- 37 percent
rating, more voters disapprove of their work. Most
(41 percent) still believe the committee's work is
moving at the right pace, however, while 39
percent think that it's moving too slowly. About 1 in
10 voters think the committee is moving too
rapidly, the poll shows.
-- Two-thirds of state voters characterized the sex
scandal's damage to the nation as ''a great deal''
(34 percent), or ''some'' (33 percent). Another
third said there was little or no damage, or had no
views on the matter.
GENDER, PARTY GAP
-- Public opinion on the Clinton sex scandal
remains deeply divided by both gender and party
affiliation, the poll shows. Democrats generally are
far more supportive and approving of Clinton, more
favorable to the idea of censure and more likely to
believe Clinton would be effective if he serves out
his term.
Women are generally more supportive and less
critical of Clinton than are men. Pollster Mark
DiCamillo attributes that difference to the gender
gap -- 57 percent of women are registered
Democrats -- and Clinton's cultivation of the
women's vote by his focus on policy issues they
care about.
-- Voters statewide appear ambivalent to the idea
of President Al Gore: Only 18 percent express ''a
great deal'' of confidence in Gore, with about a
third saying they have some confidence, and 44
percent saying they have little or no confidence.
Surprisingly, 30 percent said the selection of
California U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein as Gore's
vice president would make them less supportive of
a Gore presidency versus more (25 percent).
Field said those answers probably reflect voters'
uneasiness with a change in the presidency more
than any particular negative feelings about either
Feinstein or Gore. ''The public doesn't like the idea
of contemplating the idea of a Gore presidency, or
anybody else being vice president'' yet, he said.
The Field Poll was based on a random statewide
telephone sample of 772 registered California
voters, taken September 27-October 3. The poll's
margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage
points.
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ELECTION '98
Davis, Lungren talk
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President's rating down
across the state.
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"If he were a
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We'll see further erosion for Clinton in the next four weeks. Count on it. |
