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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Hurst who wrote (3899)	10/5/1998 7:45:00 PM
From: art slott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8218

Big Blues on top. wired.com

To: Don Hurst who wrote (3899)	10/6/1998 3:51:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8218

Don, I believe earnings are released on 10/20/98 after the close. Consensus mean is 1.53 with the whisper number at 1.56. My guess is 1.55 with a 5% revenue growth on a constant currency basis. North America had a great quarter, Europe ok, Asia Pacific so so, Latin America a question mark. Mainframes and services great, software is good, maintenance flat, OEM very good, AS/400 good, Risc is problematic, PC business a question mark, and so on. All of this just an opinion based upon industry trends and IBM's competitiveness. This is not an easy quarter to call with regards to investor receptivity. Remember 4Q 96 report in early 97 got bagged. IBM dropped from 170 or so to 130 before rebounding prior to the split and dividend increase in the Spring. Since then similar lack luster reports have been received well since they were "making the numbers" and investor psychology was strong. Now the glass is half empty not half full and the points that Jules keeps making may not fall on deaf ears. On the other hand investors and the street are looking for something good to hang their hat on so maybe IBM's report will get a positive spin. But good reports have been coming out and not doing anything for the market or even that particular stock. Good report, quick bounce and then it trades back down. Too much overhang with Japan, bank losses, Latin America, etc. This all has to work its way out and it may be late November or December before we get any positive bias. So this time they may make the numbers, have great things to say, it trades up some, but then the institutions raise cash by selling into any rally and by month end it is floating around 110 to 115. Anything can happen. Jules may rule here so everyone be nice.