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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arrow Hd. who wrote (3902)	10/6/1998 5:31:00 PM
From: Jules B. Garfunkel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8218

Hello Arrow " Jules may rule here so everyone be nice." Thanks for your quasi endorsement, but I think you're being overly optimistic on your earning's estimate for IBM's Q3. If all that you say, concerning IBM's earnings comes true, it will be a reversal of the trends we saw in Q2. i.e. hardware sales and margins dropped, maintenance revenues down, South America's and Asia's revenues falling, etc. However, I don't know how you are able to estimate IBM's Q3 earnings at $1.55. or $1.56, without knowing how much of their stock IBM bought back in the quarter, or if they were able to continue to lower their tax rate any further than the 30.4% we saw in Q2. Jules.

To: Arrow Hd. who wrote (3902)	10/14/1998 10:57:00 PM
From: Don Hurst	Respond to of 8218

Arrow Hd., thanks for the info on earnings date etc. Based on what has been happening with INTC and others I suspect that if IBM is not super positive on 1999, ...well let's say just vaguely positive on 99, then your forecast of 110 just after a positive earnings report on the 20th is bullish. I know the Y2K issue has to help the services revenue but outside of that I got to believe that DP depts all over the place are redoing (downward) 1999 budgets. November put premiums are going to be high on the 20th. I would like to write some calls but no can do. They would have to be naked. Regards, Don