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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (24961)	10/6/1998 9:00:00 PM
From: Wildstar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

BBuxx, I wish I knew what the price is going to be in the short term. I like you am holding out for lower prices. I'm no expert, but I don't the cycle is anywhere near turning. I am more bearish than most people on this thread (I know that's hard to believe). The main reasons: 1) Asia - The politicians in Japan have proven that they are not willing to take any action - mainly because the "fix" will actually make things worse, i.e., letting the big banks fail will cause more pain. In other words, there is no "fix". 2) A lot of the optimism is due to firming of the DRAM prices, which I believe to be a phony phenomenon. Ordinarily, stabilization of DRAM prices would signal that supply is coming into balance with demand. However, the main reason for the prices is that the producers are temporarily under-utilizing plants. That is not a real supply-demand balance. As soon as prices go up a little, they'll crank the DRAMS and we'll be drowning in them. And if the market tanks, who knows what will happen.