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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edward F. Horst Jr. who wrote (2547)	10/7/1998 8:54:00 AM
From: Lutz Moeller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Edward, these days in the analyst scene to downgrade, in the journalist scene to compare today to the thirtees and everyone to lust his pain, seems chic. The PSFT CC statement are just otherwise. SAP numbers will be out shortly, so maybe we can learn something REAL there. Lutz

To: Edward F. Horst Jr. who wrote (2547)	10/7/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Don Dodge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

The analysts listen to LOTS of input, not just what the company officials are saying. Sometimes these analysts know more about the marketplace and their customers than the company themselves. Chuck Phillips (MS) and Rick Sherlund (GS) do not run with "the herd". The herd follows them. Believe me these guys are very aware of the influence they have and are very careful how they use it. They do not change their ratings (up or down) unless they are absolutely convinced there is significant changes to warrant the ratings change. They are not "ignoring the facts from the company", they are testing what the company says against what their sources tell them. Again, they talk to employees, customers, competitors, system integrators, consultants, etc. They do extensive polling of potential customers before they make pronouncements. Chuck knows that these downgrades effect people and their investments. He can not control how the market reacts, or in some cases over-reacts to his reports. Believe me I have lost a fortune from one of his downgrades. I was mad, but time has proven him right. I saw one case where Chuck issued a downgrade of Computer Associates (CA) and the stock dropped more than $10 in one day. Chuck thought the market had over reacted and issued an upgrade based on price two days later. It was the first time I had ever seen him do that, but he will try to repair damage if he feels the market has over reacted. I think PSFT is a fine company and will do very well in the long term. SAP does represent a serious threat and PSFT needs to adjust its business accordingly. Long term investors should look at this as a buying opportunity but keep a close eye on SAP. Don