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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MD Bryant who wrote (6911)	10/8/1998 1:06:00 PM
From: Doug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

M.D.B: The report I referred to was issued in 97. Since then a like report was published in 98. ASND has been good enough to publish both the 97 and 98 report. NN had used a report dated 97. Kindly quote a current reference to substantiate your Revenue breakdown claims. Without that, we are in the realm of assumptions. Sure TELCOM like Healthcare are expanding Markets. However when the Capital contracts, Spending slows. Check 72-74 recession to see how these indexes faired. Healthcare demands even more dollars but instead the current motto in that sector is "Do more with less". As for the source of extra earnings, you are now partly relying on a reduction of SG&A whilst sales are expected to increase. Further you have not considered any Taxes. This is an unusual scenario for which I have not found any precedent. You may like to share the examples from NN's or other equivalent Companies to show that indeed this is well within possibility. As I said earlier, in this market certainty will only be established after the event. However, Hope, Hype and despair will precede it.

To: MD Bryant who wrote (6911)	10/8/1998 3:14:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18016

The .05CDN they need to produce translates into about 30MM in sales (or 9MM in Net Profit, hence .05 per share), which would put them at 452MM for the quarter. I believe that is EASILY achievable given their recent contract successes. Aside from that this is approximately only 5% sequential growth, not the 15% you pegged them at, which would asertain their revenues would need to be 490MM, which is indeed unatainable. Since analysts were told the range for Q2 was $460-465 (458 concensus), and that 465 was do-able, I think we can forego statistical norms. Why read tea leaves when you have access to the real numbers? This is for Doug, not you. :) Earlier today I phoned one of my contacts at the company and asked what we could look forward to in this dark time in the market. To summarize: Institutional interest includes names like Fidelity, Putnam, Casse des Depot [phonetic spelling, don't know the co.], and Ontario Teachers Pension Fund. Analyst interest includes Goldman Sachs, Dain Rauscher Wessels, and CSI First Boston. [No idea when they'd initiate/add, but it sounded positive.] I asked about M&A activity and was told the angst in the market may slow things down, but that would be good as it would give them more time to get the stock closer to $40 US, a much more desirable base from which to negotiate. Next week the new public relations firm will be bringing out several releases and the following week several more --- all leading up to InterOp, beginning on Oct. 21. Granted, no one could tell me there's a huge contract among the pile, but at least I'm glad to know the company's responsive to shareholders' worries and is making every effort to keep the Street informed during this down market. Now, if we could shove Mr. Starr down a sump hole, and keep the Japanese moving in the right direction, the world would be a better place. Later -- Pat

To: MD Bryant who wrote (6911)	10/8/1998 8:09:00 PM
From: Peppe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

MD, This is too good a fight for me to stand idly by. <I make an analysis and holes are shot throught it.... go figure.> OK, here's a rebuttal to some points you made. <NN is NOT a Telecom Heavyweight, they are concentrated in several distinct technologies, and emerging technologies, hence the 15% growth rate is hogwash.> This is a NN strength ? Being focussed on ATM and TDM for over 90 % of their business is a weakness in my eyes. < Likely bundled in those estimates are Routers and enterprise technologies which have dinky margins left> Hmmm, and how do you back that statement up ? CSCO's margins are holding steady at 67 %. <Backbone is where the revenue is, which is why CSCO is scrambling to get a carrier class ATM solution)> ever hear of Stratacom ? How about Packet over Sonet ? Layer 3 services ring a bell ? Is CSCO needed technology, they'd buy it. <USA holds 300 million people of the worlds 6 billion, or 5%> Yeah. The US also represents over 50% of revenue for Nortel, Lucent and Cisco. Russia is nice, but New York pays the bills. <In Canada, because of competion the phone networks are overloaded in the evenings due to flat rate calling plans. Expansion is required. (Guess who supplies Stentor?)> Nortel does. Circuit switch ports get bought when Stentor needs more LD facilities. NN has no increased revenues from increases in voice traffic on Stentor's network. (Unless NN sells Class 5 switches to Stentor. ) MD, NN will probably make the nut b/c their guidance indicates it.(as per Pat's tea leaf comment). The real test will be how much of their revenue is TDM vs ATM. NN's ATM revenue will be what analysts will be looking for. Cheers, Peppe