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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (20776)	10/8/1998 10:55:00 PM
From: Gary Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

This looks like a 70's style monetary crisis. Greenspan is in a pickle. A good little recession would do much to build for future stability. Unemployment is low, and labor is scarce. If he pumps up the economy with further interest rate cuts we could be seeing the start of cost push inflation. If he doesn't we could see a dramatic recession, heightened by the global crisis. The president is against tax cuts, while the surplus is sucking money from the economy. Look at the last time we had a surplus. It was the year before the recession in 1970. There was a GM strike that year also, but the surplus had an effect. This is not a pretty picture. I remember an Econ 101 paper I wrote many years ago entitled, "There will never be another great depression." Hummmm....young and foolish????