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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul feldman who wrote (2574)	10/9/1998 12:40:00 AM
From: LLCoolG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Mr. Feldman, Hopefully you learned three very important things: 1. When you buy a momentum stock, and the momentum runs out, you are toast, regardless of past performance. 2. Institutions and brokerage houses act in their own self interests and will take advantage of others for their own gain. Read Wednesday's USA Today, they reported that Lehman Brothers, who has irresponsibly hyped the stock to no end, put a target of 70 all the way down, and whose "analysis" has been posted here as virtual gospel, is dangerously close to Chapter 11, and is losing many of its key personnel. 3. While companies such as this are "fabulous", there are very few that remain among the mighty. This never was the blue chip a lot of recent investors, and many long-term holders who fell in love with it, believed it to be. Never even got close to being the gorilla of its segment. I hope you take these with you. G

To: paul feldman who wrote (2574)	10/9/1998 5:38:00 AM
From: Lutz Moeller	Respond to of 4509

Hi Paul, You wrote: " - what did we learn? I bought stock in a fabulous company. It tanked. How is anyone supposed to know these things. That's why they call it gambling." Well, what You learn depends on Your investmentstyle. I don't know yours. Mine is to invest in profitable tech companies, that have a sustainable advantage over competition and hold them as long as these assumptions seem true. Thats why I own PSFT (I have not learned to cash in on a peak). I learned, I can't - predict the general market moves - predict interest rate changes - predict exchange rates - predict developments in foreign countries (asia, latin america) - predict aceptable valuation standards (P/E, P/S, ROE etc.) - predict war I learned, I can (in tech only, because that's my background) - identify a companies unique positions in a markets - look for a companies barriers against competitors to eat away market share - see a profitabel company - see historical growth - dream educated about future growth - apply valuation rules - avoid to gamble - use margin - hope the market will reward my picks over time (many Years). The IMF cried "Wolf", to motivate Congrass to give it money, which congress denies so far. A. Greenspan prepared the public with acomments about slowing growth for the next rate cut, that soon shall come. The market rose above rational valuation levels in the last 8 Years. Profit groth in the S&P 500 slowed from the usual 10 - 15% pace to 5%. So no doubt, the markets were ripe for a fall. I have a problem to sell shares below their peak, as I think someone else eats my lunch (foolish, ain't it?). I have to learn to avoid this behaviour in the future. But again, I can't market time. So Paul, what learned You so far? Regards Lutz