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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (3971)	10/9/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

Thread: I expect us to lose around 500 to 800 points on the DOW over the next couple days (NASCRAP has more to lose also) and then we'll have a HUGE rally that looks VERY real, and most shorts will cover and many suckers will buy thinking that the bull has started again.... and then WE get to the fun part of the CRASH!!!.... a trip to DOW 4000. Note that this VERY S-T bottom will coincide w/ HUGE volume and awful adv/decline.. etc. the CNBC kiddies will call it a "washout bottom", but it is actually just a washout pitstop and should be shorted all the way up cause there is no telling when it will roll over. We will likely gap down 500 points from the peak and you won't be able to buy an uptick to short and puits will liekly be off the scale expensive for a 5 or 6 day period as we lop off 3000 points in a week and a half or less. No question in my mind. The rally will likely coincide w/ some great news (IMF funding or Fed rate cut... who knows)and last for a few days. The point is it doesn't matter what the news is, we will rally and then we get the worst part of the crash... COUNT ON IT!! and do not let the m shake you out. Oct puts will likely get smashed so make sure you have at least Nov, the bottom should be around 10/26 or 10/27. there are 3 chairs out there w/ 4 people circling them.. the music has stopped and they are fighting it out to see who is going to be left w/out a chair. when this is all over, MANY will be left w/out chairs. Don't give yours up prematurely. -Lucretius BTW- the long bond will continue to fall and actually pick up steam as it bombs, gold stocks should rally next week as gold starts to soar and the dollar crashes.