Inquiry Deemed Certain To Lead to Impeachment
Marc Sandalow, Chronicle Washington Bureau
Friday, October 9, 1998
Even before yesterday's vote, an alarming
assumption had taken hold on Capitol Hill: William
Jefferson Clinton will be impeached.
For all the talk of how an impeachment inquiry is
just the beginning of a deliberate search for the
truth, the prevailing wisdom inside the Beltway is
that Congress is headed down an irreversible path
toward the first impeachment trial since 1868.
As a mystified nation wonders how a tawdry sexual
affair could explode into an episode of historic
significance, the political class that dominates this
town is preparing for months of scholarly
discussions on the Constitution, salacious
arguments about sex and then a partisan vote for
impeachment.
Though the conventional wisdom has been wrong
many times before, there is a firm belief that House
Republicans -- ranging from anti-Clinton crusaders
and religious-right stalwarts to the political
moderates and constitutional purists -- have already
seen enough to support articles of impeachment.
''That is a fait accompli,'' said Representative
Nancy Pelosi, D- San Francisco. ''There isn't any
doubt in anybody's mind around here.''
Of course, an impeachment vote in the House does
not mean removal from office. That would take a
two-thirds vote in the Senate, and nobody believes
that will happen. The prediction is that Clinton will
serve the remainder of his term, as Andrew
Johnson did, after having faced the House's ultimate
rebuke more than 100 years ago.
''Impeachment is a foregone conclusion,'' said
Representative Zoe Lofgren, D-San Jose, just
moments before the House cast its ballots
yesterday.
''(Republicans) don't care about the Constitution,''
she said, previewing the coming hearings before the
Judiciary Committee, of which she is a member. ''I
think we're going to be talking about thong
underwear.''
Of course, Democrats sometimes like to make such
dire predictions to portray their counterparts as
extremists. But on this issue, Republicans make the
same prediction.
''Unless the president does the honorable thing and
resigns, we are definitely headed toward the
spectacle of an impeachment trial in the U.S.
Senate sometime in the first half of next year.'' said
Representative Frank Riggs, R-Windsor.
As farfetched as impeachment seems to those
outside the capital's self-absorbed web of intrigue,
a look at what it would take to derail Republicans
from such a course shows why so many political
junkies believe it is inevitable.
The surest way to make talk of impeachment go
away is for Democrats to make big advances in the
coming election. The November 3 vote, even if
voters do not see it that way, will be interpreted as
a referendum on Clinton and impeachment.
But Democratic advances -- though possible --
seem unlikely. Some polls have detected anger at
Republicans for pursuing the inquest. Other polls
suggest that those most likely to vote are those who
are angry at Clinton. Most independent analysts
expect Republicans to pick up from five to 15 seats
in the House and two to four seats in the Senate.
Another way to stave off impeachment is for the
Republican leaders, sensing the public's outrage at
the inquiry, to back off. As lawmakers explore the
details to determine whether Clinton lied under
oath, they may find themselves on terrority that is
difficult to defend.
In the 1860s, Congress debated whether Johnson
fired a cabinet secretary in defiance of the law. In
the 1970s, it debated whether President Richard
Nixon used the FBI and CIA to cover up a
politically motivated burglary. In the coming
months, Congress may be in the position of having
to debate whether President Clinton touched
Monica Lewinsky's breasts.
Although there are more solemn issues regarding
lying under oath, conspiracy and obstruction of
justice, after nine months of news reports it appears
that the public is even more outraged over the
intrusion into the president's privacy, providing
Democrats a golden opportunity to attack his
inquisitors.
''The president betrayed his wife. He did not
betray the country. God help this nation if we fail to
recognize the difference,'' railed Representative
Robert Wexler, D-Fla., during yesterday's debate.
For Republicans to back off would require some
key moderates to step forward. Some insiders have
suggested that Representatives Lindsey Graham,
R-S.C., or Robert Goodlatte, R-Pa., both of
whom serve on the Judiciary Committee, might
serve that role. Or perhaps House Speaker Newt
Gingrich, in an effort to shore up moderate votes in
his quest for the Republican presidential nomination
in 2000, might decide to broker a deal with the
president and declare that ''our long national
nightmare is over.''
But there was no evidence of such inclinations
yesterday, as Republicans accused Clinton of far
more serious sins than trying to conceal an
extramarital affair.
''If perjury and obstruction of justice do not
undermine the integrity of the office, what offenses
would?'' asked Representative Charles Canady,
R-Fla.
Of course, impeachment could be avoided if
Clinton resigns, as Nixon did in 1974 when his
removal from office became certain. Clinton has
made clear that he will not do that.
''I don't know what the future holds,'' Hyde said as
the debate opened yesterday. Most of Washington
seems to think it does.
Get a printer-friendly
version of this article
IMPEACHMENT, HO
House OKs
impeachment inquiry.
Inquiry deemed certain
to lead to impeachment.
Clinton hangs tough in
budget bargaining.
Bipartisan support key
to inquiry.
Clinton lawyer tells judge
he misled her.
Clinton enemies get to
gloat.
Jon Carroll: Getting past
the normal disgust.
impeachment talks
"I think Congress is
more upset about
Clinton perjuring
himself. This is not a
spin. For those of
you think that Clinton
is in trouble because
he had sex, look
deeper..."
--join us in the President
Clinton & the Law topic
ON THE GATE
CHART:
HOW THE HOUSE VOTED
.
The House voted 258 to 176 yesterday to begin an impeachment
inquiry of President Clinton. A look at
how the Bay Area delegation voted:
.
Dist. Member Yes No
.
1. Frank Riggs X
R-Windsor
.
3. Vic Fazio X
D-West Sacramento
.
6. Lynn Woolsey X
D-Petaluma
.
7. George Miller X
D-Martinez
.
8. Nancy Pelosi X
D-San Francisco
.
9. Barbara Lee X
D-Oakland
.
10. Ellen Tauscher X
D-Walnut Creek
.
12. Tom Lantos X
D-Hillsborough
.
13. Pete Stark X
D-Hayward
.
14. Anna G. Eshoo X
D-Atherton
.
15. Tom Campbell X
R-Campbell
.
16. Zoe Lofgren X
D-San Jose
.
17. Sam Farr X
D-Carmel
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