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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (55675)	10/9/1998 12:39:00 PM
From: bucky89	Respond to of 61433

Research findings differ as to who has the ATM WAN sector "sewn up." I frankly don't think anyone can claim total dominance and if they do, they should take a page out of Andy Grove's book and tape it to their mirror. Pat, Research findings differ because it depends on which ATM WAN market you're talking about. Are you including ATM concentrators? Are you talking about the enterprise market or service provider market or both? International Data Corporation (IDC) reports that Newbridge continued to lead the market in ATM Edge/Enterprise Switch revenues worldwide with 27.5 percent market share, a one percent gain over 1996. A one percent gain over 1996? Impressive. Must be a 1997 report, which is old and dated information. This is relevant because... IDC forecasts that the ATM Edge/Enterprise segment of the market will grow from $1.44 billion in 1997 to $4.91 billion in 2002. Haha!! I don't agree at all. I think if you asked IDC today, they would retract this statement. The ATM enterprise market likely did not grow at all from 1997 to 1998, and may have shrunk. IP, not ATM is taking over the enterprise networking market. That is probably one reason why Newbridge is having problems. Stock down from the 40's & 50's to the teens today. Missed expectations. ATM is now a carrier technology, and that is why Ascend is having such a good time. I work for a very large corporation, so I should know about the enterprise market. Two years ago, we thought we'd be deploying ATM by now, but now that has completely changed. Cisco grabbed us by the balls, and we are 100% IP now. Yes, some of our IP is carried by Ascend ATM, but that is all carrier infrastructure. We don't own any of those switches. bucky89

To: pat mudge who wrote (55675)	10/9/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: Techwatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Pat, some clarification on NN market share claims. Take a close look at the data within their press release: The time frame of the market data referenced is for 1997....is it close to being obsolete? What is the ATM market segmentation of this market data? It combines Service Provider, Enterprise and LAN segments. This does not provide any insight into how well or poorly NN is doing specifically in the Service Provider space where Ascend competes in. The data is based on enduser revenue not manufacturer revenue. Enduser revenue allows for a "mark-up" associated with shipments through indirect channels. Market sizing firms that report on enduser revenue do not give the same "mark-up" to each vendor. I am assuming that since NN sells more through indirect channels than Ascend does then NN gets a high mark-up. Reporting on enduser revenue may not be a true measurement of what the "manufacturer" sold. IDC and Dataquest will not have 1998 data for quite a while. For current market share I would suggest looking at 1998 data that is available from Cahners, Dell'oro and Vertical Systems...or whoever else you think is credible. Be sure to verify the time frame, how the data is segmented and how it is reported (enduser vs manufacturer). To get a historic perspective and a sense of which vendors are gaining ATM market share in the Service Provider space compare their 1998 data to their 1997 data. Tell us what you find. Best wishes....