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To: Compadre who wrote (55128)	10/9/1998 7:30:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

jaime choy: So, are you expecting a bull rally or a bear rally? Regards, LG

To: Compadre who wrote (55128)	10/9/1998 8:03:00 PM
From: BILL G. WRIGHT	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Please let me offer something in this area: 1. Historically, October is a very bearish month. 2. 3rd quarter earnings reports will start coming in next week and will really accelerate coming in the following week. It is always the negative surprise earnings that will drive the market down. Quite often even favorable earnings reports will cause those stocks to sell-off 3. You can bet that the move up today was mostly shorts covering their positions prior to the week-end. For some it will be a 3 days week-end. These same shorters will be back shorting the market about Tuesday or Wednesday.

To: Compadre who wrote (55128)	10/9/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: NucTrader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Sorry to ask a dumb ? but with a double bottom, does the 2nd bottom have to be higher than the first? Or is it classically lower?

To: Compadre who wrote (55128)	10/9/1998 10:55:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Jaime: As long as the New Lows overpower the New Highs we cannot have a sustained rally... We need to return to a period of New Lows below 100 and then 40 or less on a consistent basis... Without that any rally will fail... Jim

To: Compadre who wrote (55128)	10/10/1998 1:29:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Jaime, >>>>>> The market had the third place record volume day yesterday, and it rebounded very smartly. Today it followed through with impressive strength. As I recall, there was only three days in history that the markets volume surpassed 1.1 billion. All three day marked an intermediate term bottom, and they lasted at least three weeks. <<<<< Correct me if I am wrong, since I dont have the data now, but I believe that the DOWN VOLUME was much greater than the UP VOLUME yesterday, even though the DOW fully rebounded. If I am correct then it was a very high volume down day regardless of the price. >>>>> The DJI is forming a huge double bottom, with yesterday's low (if it holds as an intermediate bottom) being higher than the intra-day low of September 1. <<<<<<<< Per my basic rules I work on intraday lows not closing lows. I realise that such can be argued. We actually set a lower intraday low on Thursday when the DOW got to 7468. The previous intraday low was at 7496, so I cant say it was conclusive since I normally require a 50 point break of support line. >>>>>>>>Many Indices are holding their ground just above a four or five year trend line. Among these the Dow, OEX, SPX, NDX. The Nasdaq being and exception but in extreme oversold conditions. <<<<< Again I believe this becomes a discussion of intraday lows and closing lows. Only the DOW, XMI, HFX did not set a NEW LOW. Almost every other major index did set a new intraday low, including the spx, oex, ndx. Heres a basic technical rule I follow based on statistics. In a negative market, if a significant LOWER LOW is produced and bounces immediately - such new levels will be retested within approximately 15 days. So far the only time that such has not occured was last OCT, where 6975 was not retested, and back tested it for 3 years. Actually I really need to go back further since I need 30+ occurrances to be considered statistically acceptable, unfortunately I dont have the data going that far back. seeya

To: Compadre who wrote (55128)	10/10/1998 12:37:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 58727

Jaime .. I think that some of your answer is within your question. "and the DOW will test the resistance at it's 200 day EMA." The majority of winning trades are trades made with the trend instead of against it. With the averages below the 200 day EMA, the averages put negative pressure on the trend lines. (the trend lined being the slopes of the moving averages) Your bullish hope is that the 200 day EMA will be tested and then a breakthrough. You recognize that this line marks a point of resistance. As long as the 200 day EMA represents a resistance and not a support we are trending down. You can fight the trend .. you may be right, but, long term, the odds are against you. Gersh