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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (55148)	10/9/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 58727

I need to work with this data. I shall. Thanks. I think it is hard to say what will happen next week, but I share your view it is a critical time.

To: HairBall who wrote (55148)	10/10/1998 1:15:00 AM
From: Compadre	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

LG: Your analysis is much more along the line of my thoughts. I am not trying to tell you guys that we are into a bull market again. All I am trying to say is that may be we are not heading down to 7000 at all. I guess it is possible, but the possibility of going sideways is much higher. Regards, Jaime

To: HairBall who wrote (55148)	10/11/1998 9:55:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 58727

LG, and all, I really dont follow PUT to CALL ratios that much, but just out of interest I was looking at the OPEN INTEREST in the OEX OPTIONS. My thought is that it is the BIG BOYS who do most of the selling of the PUTS and CALLS, so it would benefit them the most to have as many of the PUTS and CALLS to expire worthless. Based on that I tried to analyze the OPEN INTEREST of both PUTs to CALLs to see at what level would there be equilibrium, which would imply that arbitrage may be minimized as we approach option expiration. All I did was add 4-5 sequential strikeprices on both the PUTs and CALLs and when they were about equal for both the PUTs and CALLs, then I concluded that such price would be the best for the OEX to close at expiration. Of course this is based on Fridays figures and will change daily. Is this logic viable, please comment. From this process, I concluded that equilibrium between the PUTS and CALLS would be achieved with the OEX above 485 and below 490. I also did it for the DJX, but the DJX has much less volume in total, nevertheless, I concluded equilibrium below 8000 and above 7900. So based on Fridays figures, if the OEX was to drop below 485 there would be more PUTs in the money than CALLs and if it rose above 490 there would be more CALLS in the money than PUTs. Am I making any sense. Since I am still learning to understand the options better, would appreciate any comments. Seeya