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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raptor who wrote (2596)	10/10/1998 1:02:00 PM
From: Raptor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

THREAD .. TAKE HEART ... Here is something good .... OK, now that I have your attention... this is not quite earth shattering, but if you believe that PSFT's officers and executives have acted and continue to act in a responsible manner and are as above board and honest as they proclaim and have proven to be in the past, then this ought to be a sign. As we all know, PSFT is in the 'quiet period' - between qtr end and release day (oct 20). As the quiet period began, Mr. Philips issued his pronouncement and a stock already in the doldrums went into the proverbial toilet. Needless to say, Chucky boy is not very popular around PSFT these days. Even employees have had margin calls. A PS exec (who shall remain nameless as shall the location and circumstances) spoke briefly to an assembled group within the past day or so on the stock topic (as part of a larger presentation). I am keeping the info quiet even though there was no mention of confidentiality and it was to a reasonable sized crowd of business people. He mentioned the quiet period and the fact that he couldn't say too much and I do not want anyone to get the idea that he stepped over the line or anything - he did not. I just am not comfortable to repeat everything and attribute it without permission. Consider this me passing you the info as 'talk around the water cooler', FWIW. He reviewed PSFT's market position and it's strengths and that all was well inside the company. Employees are focussed on servicing clients, etc. He mentioned areas where PSFT has been killing SAP. He did mention that SAP seemed to be reacting scared about how strong PS was in certain market segments (e.g gov't) and might be trying to give software away just to try and make a dent (sounds like desperation to me). SAP is also pushing their new methodology (forget the acronym so forgive me). PSFT has felt and continues to feel that their focus and alignment on industry business units has been very effective in both marketing software and servicing clients. He reminded eveyone that PSFT is in great financial shape (no debt and $500MM in cash). They continue to grow and hire employees (ie. read in to this that why would they still be on a hiring binge if business was slowing down and in trouble at this time?). He (PS) still expects this market to boil down to two companies - PSFT and SAP. He dismisses BAAN as already out of the race and Oracle has been passed (as we all know) and will be left behind. They recognize SAP is a big player, and PSFT wants to compete where they can win or be #2 - so they will pick their spots. And they have done this - they 'own' higher education segment for example. He also felt PS had strength in the partners they work with , including acquisitions. I took from this (ie. drawing my own conclusions), that we will be OK on OCT 20 at 5pm and I am not so worried. Of course, how much the numbers will be and the EPS number is anyone's guess. I know we all think PSFT's needs to beat by more than 0.01 this time to get a significant rise. In fact, steady as she goes (ie. right in line with what PSFT has guided) will likely be seen as negative in these market conditions and atmosphere. I think PS will beat (even though this exec said nothing and could not have literally said anything). I simply cannot believe and accept a proposition that PS would hold an unprecedented conference call and this exec would continue to support that conference call and talk about the good things if there was going to be a negative earnings surprise on Oct 20. The market has beat down PSFT and lots of other stocks. We have all taken a shit-kicking, but unless it's 1929, I think we have to see improvement from here. This will be a bad memory in 5 years. Keep the faith and we'll see on the 20th.