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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (4262)	10/11/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: Peppe	Respond to of 12623

Jeffrey, This company fascinates me. They have great technology in a fast growing market. They were treated as the darling og\f the industry only MONTHS ago. They were a possible take-over target with umteen potential suitors. So what's changed ? 1- The TLABs fiasco burned a lot of investors. That takes a while to recover from. 2- LU, NT and Cisco will build out networks by selling total networks. LU and NT already own WDM, CSCO doesn't yet. CIEN is vulnerable to "bundle" selling when facing LU and NT. Conclusion ? CSCO has to buy CIEN. Problem ? Chambers says he won't. 3- Markets have crashed all around us. Large caps will recover first, then mid-caps will join in. We may not have seen bottom but CIEN is NOT a $ 8.50 stock. 4- All the uncertainty has caused aome panic selling and when it stops, CIEN will recover nicely. Probably over a month away from that happening. I belive CIEN has to sell to survive. Stock will move back up to mid teens and then CIEN will entertain offers. Likely candidates are ERICY, CSCO and ASND (if they aren't bought by LU). (I bought in at 10.5 and added to my position on Friday at 8.5, so you know tho subjectivity of my comments. I plan to sell for a quick profit at around $15, which IMO should be achievable before year end) Good luck, Peppe

To: jeffbas who wrote (4262)	10/11/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: jach	Respond to of 12623

<Can they compate with Lucent?> always, that's why startup networking companies in SV can come up with products much faster. Almost all large companies have so much extra baggage and overhead such as: co-ordination between divisions (this alone can take a lot of time, and finally when they decided to start doing, the startups already have the products); mkt strategy development so they don't eat their own; backward compatibility overhaed (release products need to work with the other 100 released products from the company out there). No wonder most large telecom companies keep on swallowing small satrtups; if one looks at their networking portfolio of products from large telecom companies, almost all are offering significant number of products from companies that they acquired. CIEN is two yrs ahead of LU in DWDM; and will again be two yrs ahead when their IP/ATM direct over DWDM is released.

To: jeffbas who wrote (4262)	10/11/1998 11:25:00 PM
From: jach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

LU does not even come near let alone to compete - imo ---------- extract from OC-192 product release from CIENA <"The addition of the OC-192 interface to MultiWave Sentry provides CIENA's customers with another feature enabling future network flexibility while protecting existing network investments," said Steve Chaddick, CIENA's senior vice president of products and technologies. "The OC-192 interface offers carriers another alternative in the race to keep pace with rapidly increasing growth in high-speed data services and new options for creating data-centric network architectures such as IP/ATM over DWDM." CIENA's enhanced MultiWave Sentry is suitable for service providers' long-haul, dense route applications that require scalable capacity. This new capability makes it possible for carriers to simultaneously mix or match up to forty-eight 10 Gb/s (OC-192/OC-192c/STM-64) SONET or SDH channels with 2.5 Gb/s (OC-48/OC-48c/STM-16) channels thereby protecting current network investments while giving them increased options for bandwidth and network scalability. MultiWave Sentry includes CIENA's open architecture and DirectConnect feature that make it feasible for carriers to mix SONET/SDH, ATM and IP traffic on a common optical network. This simplifies the network architecture and eliminates the additional cost associated with an intervening synchronous layer in evolving data-centric ATM and IP networks. The addition of the OC-192 interface will support the next generation of high-speed routers and switches with the 10 Gb/s interface.> ----------------------------------- NOW pay attention to the DirectConnect feature above, this is the big ONE!