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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John F. who wrote (2656)	10/13/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: Grabs	Respond to of 4509

Salomon Smith Barney Comment on Today: Unusual move by PeopleSoft Salomon Smith Barney Neil Herman October 13, 1998 --SUMMARY:--PeopleSoft, Inc.--Server & Enterprise Software **PeopleSoft recently canceled its scheduled presentation at Alex Brown. This is unusual for PeopleSoft We briefly spoke with management and we continue to believe that the company will not pre-announce this quarter. The company indicated that they did not want to be in the position of saying "no comment" with respect to a likely large number of investor questions related to the growth of the sector, earnings, and revenues. In that the company is in its quiet period, we wonder why the company would have canceled its appearance at such a late date. Wall Street is now wondering whether the company will back off its guidance of 60% revenue growth for the second half of the year. --EARNINGS:----------------------------------------------------------------- FYE 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr Year Actual 12/97 EPS $0.07A $0.09A $0.11A $0.16A $0.44A Previous 12/98 EPS $0.13A $0.15A $0.17E $0.22E $0.68E Current 12/98 EPS $0.13A $0.15A $0.17E $0.22E $0.68E Previous 12/99 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $0.95E Current 12/99 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $0.95E Previous 12/00 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A Current 12/00 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A Footnotes: --FUNDAMENTALS:------------------------------------------------------------- Current Rank........:1-H Price 10/12/98......:$23.12 Prior Rank..........: Target Price........:$35.00 P/E 12/98...........:34.0X 52 Wk Price Range...:55.93 - 20.00 P/E 12/99...........:24.3X Proj. 5yr EPS Grth..:45.0% Return on Equity 97.:32.30% BookValue...........:$0.00 LT Debt-to-Capital..:0.00% Dividend............:$0.00 Revenue 1998........:$1.34 mil Yield...............:N/A% Shares Outstanding..:226.33 mil Convertible.........:No Mkt. Capitalization.:$5232.75 mil Hedge Clause(s).....: Comments............:

To: John F. who wrote (2656)	10/13/1998 5:44:00 PM
From: The Player	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Hi guys, I'm an avid reader of the thread who has just recently become a member of SI. I'm just as sick as everyone else about the recent decline. This WSJ article didn't make me feel any better. Sounds shady to me...and looks like investors agreed as JDEC closed sharply lower today. Anyway..here's the article: J.D. Edwards Sees Sales Growth Continuing at Current High Level By MARIA V. GEORGIANIS Dow Jones Newswires J.D. Edwards & Co. Chief Financial Officer Rick Allen said the company is accelerating its software growth and expects product sales to increase in the mid-50% range in fiscal 1998 from year-ago levels. In an interview, Mr. Allen said the enterprise-resource-planning software company isn't experiencing any slowdown in overall revenue growth. He declined to comment on long-term growth prospects ahead of the company's year-end report, expected Dec. 3. J.D. Edwards's fiscal year ends Oct. 31. Mr. Allen said he's comfortable with Wall Street's 67-cents-a-share consensus earnings estimate for fiscal 1998. He said he expects total revenue to be up 40% to 45% and services revenue to grow about 35% over the year-ago period. Investors have been concerned about slower growth for enterprise-software firms. Some believe the financial impact from weaker global economies and the need to fix the Year 2000 computer glitch might lead companies to defer software spending or cut their technology budgets. In addition, it is becoming more difficult for some enterprise-resource planning, or ERP, companies to grow at the lofty rates of the past because they're much larger now, the market is more saturated and the economic environment is more challenging. Baan Co., for example, warned Monday that it would have a third-quarter loss of 13 cents to 16 cents per American depository receipt. Analysts had expected a profit of 15 cents. The company said customers are postponing purchases because of global economic conditions, market volatility and efforts to repair the Year 2000 problem. Mr. Allen suggested that J.D. Edwards's focus on the middle-market may have shielded it from some of the concerns afflicting other ERP companies. J.D. Edwards's non-U.S. business, which accounted for 37% of revenue in the first nine months of fiscal 1998, is also continuing to grow in spite of global economic downturns, he said. "Larger companies that have very large multisite implementations are beginning to reach a point where they can't get ERP solutions up and running by the year 2000, if they have a Year 2000 problem," he said. "That's not the nature of mid-market companies. "We're not seeing a slowdown in our business," Mr. Allen said. "It's very competitive, but it always has been." In fiscal 1997, J.D. Edwards recorded $647.8 million in overall revenue, representing a 36% increase over the previous year. Product sales increased 38%, and services revenue by 34%. J.D. Edwards's products fall into the class of software that automates companies' back-office operations, such as accounting, product distribution and human resources, and helps them manage relationships with suppliers and customers. The company has traditionally focused on developing software for International Business Machines Corp. AS/400 computer systems, which account for 20% of the enterprise-software market. It targets customers in the "middle-market," or companies or divisions of multinationals with revenue between $100 million and $2 billion.

To: John F. who wrote (2656)	10/13/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: JC Reddy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Does anyone here think what happened today is overreaction to something that is really insignificant? With current P/E ratio of about 30 and conservative growth estimate about 40-50%, this clearly looks like a oversold stock. Combine this with company's reassurance in September about its earnigs and growth certainly makes this stock appear like a great buy. Does anyone believe that this stock is being manipulated by big brokerages? I don't know much about analysts, but it appears that there is every attempt to keep this stock down. Am I mistaken? However I still see 8 brokerages maintaining strong buy and 7 buy. Now that the market is closed and there wasn't any bad news, how do you think the market is going to react now? Do you think there will be some recovery tomorrow? Everything I read and learn about PSFT suggests that this is is great growth stock. However analysts seems to disagree. Any comments?