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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (2662)10/13/1998 7:03:00 PM
From: grace  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4509
 
What a stock! Without actual bad news from the company, it keeps falling like a rock. I am just one of the riders sitting on the rock.

Next key support level for PSFT is 14-15. If the earning report does not carry much bad news next week, PSFT has to gap up between 25-30 range. But, it will still take at least a few quarters to test 40+ even though a good earning report with good profit margin comes out.

Just cross the fingers for not breaking next support level, which will make me a happy PSFT long-er.

Good Luck



To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (2662)10/13/1998 8:17:00 PM
From: mauser96  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4509
 
Once software has been well developed enough to do almost everything users want, it becomes a commodity, but not necessarily fungible. I mentioned word processing as an example. Most packages do anything that a user could conceivably want (in fact are so full featured that they do more than most users want.)Theoretically they are equal, but despite this there is usually one or two big winners , and lots of small losers. They aren't truly fungible because while they are functionally interchangeable, they are not user interchangeable without a new learning curve. The costs of the learning curve, and the value of having the same program as others in your office insure that one company sells the most and makes the big profits. I seriously doubt that ERP has come close to reaching the degree of similarity seen in word processors or spread sheets. However, the market perception seems to be that ERP is headed in that direction and that profit margins will shrink. As you know, in the stock market, perceptions are more important than reality, at least in the short term.
Economists are the last ones to ask about recession. Their past record in forecasting these has been terrible. While the stock market has forecast more recessions than actually arrived, it hasn't missed any either. It's not so much that the market has written off PSFT, it has written off the whole ERP group. I've never been able to get a grip on how long ahead the market anticipates- it usually seems to be about 6 to 9 months but varies widely. I'm a long term investor, and plan to continue holding both SAP and PSFT, who I believe will turn out to be the big winners. You made a good point about the problem being more deferrals than cancellations. I think that competitive pressures will force most companies into ERP eventually. Recognizing market reality also, I have reduced my exposure in the last few months but will keep core holdings. I'm tempted to do some averaging down, but in the past this has usually turned out to be a mistake. Maybe I'll put it on my list for purchase if there is some climactic high volume capitulation day ending this bear.
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