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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCoolG who wrote (2738)	10/14/1998 9:17:00 PM
From: Elmer	Respond to of 4509

Hi G, I agree. I don't think he will mention it. If he recommends it, I'll be amazed. But he did recommend it in Barrons' three weeks ago and on CNBC about 10 days ago. My only point is that increasingly nobody likes it, which means that most but probably not all the risk is out. The trading reminds me of Remedy last December and January. GS downgraded it at Christmas because IBM bought Tivoli, a competitor of Remedy. The stock fell like a rock into earnings which was at the end of January. The report was bad and the next morning opening was an intermediate term low. It bounced about 25% off that low the same day. If PSFT has a bad report, I think the same thing will happen and if it doesn't I think it could go up a bunch on Oct. 21. BTW, while I don't like options, your earlier trading suggestions make a lot of sense. Regards David

To: LLCoolG who wrote (2738)	10/15/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Hi G, Last night I mentioned the Remedy downgrade and how the intermediate damage was done at the opening after earnings. Orcale also had a similar situation last December. Shurland downgraded the stock on December 1. It dropped about 10%. A little over one week later they reported earnings and the stock gapped from about $32 to $23. Five weeks later it hit an intermediate term low of $18 and started a recovery to $32 over the next three months. It has declined from $32 ever since. Given the size of the PSFT decline on the downgrades and the overall decline from the high, we might get a 10% or 20% further decline on a bad earnings report but after that it should, at least short term, give us a bounce. David