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Technology Stocks : Semtech (Nasdaq:SMTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Bond who wrote (616)	10/15/1998 7:25:00 AM
From: Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1225

JB, Good posts. I did close it out yesterday, but a little on the early side. Still happy with my profits though. I am DEFINITELY waiting for the right moment to get back in long on this one. I think 1999 will be a great year for SMTC. Regards, Dave

To: Jeff Bond who wrote (616)	10/15/1998 11:02:00 AM
From: Dave Hanson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1225

Somewhat OT--had to share this exerpt with you and the other long-suffering small cap believers on the thread. From yesterday's Smart Money: "Value specialist Bill Nasgovitz recently announced that due to heavy redemptions, he would close the fund and fold its assets into the larger and more successful Heartland Value (HRTVX), which he co-manages with Eric Miller. (See story.) The idea behind Contrarian was unusual. The fund bought small-cap value stocks and took short positions in large caps that Nasgovitz felt were overpriced. But the small-cap stocks fell, while the large caps rose. Over the past 12 months, the fund has lost 34.2% of its value. Not surprisingly, shareholders redeemed en masse. How bad was the exodus? At its peak, Contrarian had 25,000 shareholders, but in the last 12 months that number dropped by more than half, to 11,200 as of Sept. 30. We spoke with Nasgovitz about his departed investors and the perils of short-selling. SMI: What happened with Contrarian? Nasgovitz: I was very negative. It was way too early. I was 25% short, 25% hedged and we got the hell redeemed out of us and had to sell stocks to cover. [Shorting stocks] just doesn't work in the public domain. People don't have the patience, and they vote with their feet. SMI: Even with long positions, it's probably difficult in a market like this to get people to stay with small caps. Nasgovitz: Let me put it this way. My mother called me, just after the top in big stocks. She invests with me, and she said, 'Why are we in small caps?' She wanted to redeem the whole thing and put it into Wal-Mart. This is my own mother. I think the capitulation is so extreme, [and] they're all wrong, from my mother to the most sophisticated institutional investor. SMI: You're reopening the Value fund to new investors in early November, but the minimum investment is $25,000. Why? Nasgovitz: Our thought was that those investors would be longer term. We'll see. SMI: You're also calling for a bottom in small stocks between now and Christmas. What makes you think that's going to happen? Nasgovitz: A couple of things. First off, the supply of stock is shrinking. There are no IPOs, and insiders are buying. The fact that there are redemptions is itself, I think, a sign. I've been in this business for 30 years. And whether it's '73-'74 or '90-'91, people always redeem at bottoms, not at tops. " Makes sense to me! Wish I had more cash to go long and snap up some of those small-cap bargains.

To: Jeff Bond who wrote (616)	10/23/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: Leeza Rodriguez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1225

It's the first-cousin-once-removed affect today.:-) Upgrades in the semiconductors and equipment makers today. Also, positive news in the mobile phone handset market probably helped too. Jeff I agree with you that as long as unit volume on PC's keep increasing this company is in great shape. It doesn't matter that PC prices are falling, we just care about unit volume. Leeza Rodriguez (P.S.--everybody should check out ACEC-just turned profitable with a trailing PSR ~1 (based on closing yesterday).)Gross Margins are 54%)