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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (1917)	10/15/1998 6:50:00 AM
From: Q.	Respond to of 2506

ENER has $2 per share cash, so I'd cover somewhere north of there. I agree that it looks like a good a tax loss selling candidate. You mentioned sales per share. I don't think that the revenues per share is meaningful because the revenues are not quality: Half of the revenues are R&D grants from GM & the govt. I view these more as a handout to small companies than an indication that a viable product will be developed. I wouldn't count them for anything when valuing the stock. Revenues from product sales are based almost entirely on a single product line, battery electrodes, and these have declined sharply in the last year. So if you figure a valuation based on these revenues, it would have to be at a low PSR. So overall, $2 per share cash plus a little for the electrode sales and the other odds and ends of revenue and the future value of the technology (which I don't value highly), and I'd guess the stock is worth somewhere around $3, and the tax loss selling pressure might very well get it down there this season.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (1917)	10/19/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2506

re. MCAR, their whole business consists of training physicians to use their proprietary treatment method for urinary incontinence. I finally found what that method is: MedCare Technologies has developed a cost effective, non-drug, non-surgical and non-invasive system for the care and treatment of patients suffering from urinary incontinence. MedCare's proprietary treatment protocol does not require FDA approval, is covered by most health insurance plans and results in the reduction or complete elimination of the most commonly found urinary incontinence symptoms. Unlike traditional treatment options, which are costly and often unsuccessful or inadequate, MedCare's treatment program is completely risk free and has a proven success rate in excess of 85% using a multi-modality program based on behavioral techniques and neuromuscular electromyography biofeedback.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (1917)	10/21/1998 4:13:00 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 2506

re. tax loss selling & January effect: this month's AAII journal (amer assoc indiv investors) has an article that says that studies have shown the effects are biggest in years where the market went down, like this year. This surprised me. The article is intended to tell you how to buy to exploit the January effect, but the data shown are quite useful for our purpose as well. It emphasized the effect is limited to stocks with two attributes: low stock prices and depressed stock prices. It shows a plot of the weekly returns of the S&P low-priced stock index, averaged over 22 years. I pasted it onto my server: dusty.physics.uiowa.edu It looks like * the optimal time to initiate a short is about a week after election day in November * the optimal time to cover is a week or two before the end of the December. The last week of december is a bad week to hold a short (and a good week to be long) since the index is up an average 1.5% that week. The most awsome week, though, is the first week of January, with an average return of 4%, so you definitely don't want to be short low priced stocks that week. Or any of the first 6 weeks of the year for that matter.