To: Robert K. Sims who wrote (8368 ) 10/15/1998 12:01:00 PM From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell Respond to of 10786
Today's release and ALYD's philosophy in hiring Oglivy is to cater to the institutions. As has been said over and over, institutions, unlike many on these chat boards, aren't looking for a nice price spike on which to exit... they want to see a nice steady price rise over time. They want to be assured they are investing in a company and not a potentially fleeting wave of technology in Y2K (although I beg to differ about Y2K being fleeting, but that's how they see it). So, as Tech Master has been saying, today may possibly be a turning point in how ALYD is viewed by the investment community at large. Immediate gratification? No. That's not how institutions work. But if earnings continue to grow nicely like I expect, and we see a growing focus on Y2K in the media when firms start including those new SEC mandated Y2K disclosures in their filings, then perhaps ALYD's post Y2K strategy will give institutions the confidence to throw some money ALYD's way-- and keep it there. As for revenues, I think Y2K will probably account for 90%+ of it for the foreseeable future. At least I certainly hope so because I think billions have yet to be spent on Y2K and I want ALYD to get as much of it as they can. My guess is the goal is for the ERP stuff to kick in full-force when the Y2K stuff starts to tail off. And my guess is the goal is now to assure investors that revenues won't be falling off a cliff as everyone fears with Y2K companies. Only then will analysts feel it worth the effort to follow companies like ALYD and only then will investors start assigning a multiple similar to other technology companies. Again, the most important thing is that not only does ALYD have a plan, but that they are finally implementing it with a high-powered PR firm in Ogilvy. While we don't know yet how well received the plan will be, at least Ogilvy will be making sure it won't be falling on deaf ears. - Jeff