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Non-Tech : Derivatives: Darth Vader's Revenge -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (538)	10/16/1998 8:10:00 AM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2794

As is a constant Henry... I am simply a great admirer of your level headed approach to investing. I think you are the best of the breed...at least in my month's long acquaintance with your posts which I think are really very, very good. I am a great admirer of Leon Cooperman as well, so much so that I asked my brother who is a noted soil and land use person in LA what he thought of Newhall land. Leon's take was that it (Newhall Land) was a great potential investment.(as an aside perhaps the Newhalls were my best friends when I was growing up, so I have an affection for their family holding company) At any rate the points my brother made, he is an "insider" in LA land deals.... was that the jury was very much out on Newhall Land....and on the future of Newhall Land. At least as it was painted by Leon Cooperman in Barron's. So. The point is that "insiders" know much more than we do. We all know that. Right? In an environment, however, where the bad things at the back of the cave come out at us from the dark... at a certain point in the economic cycle... like we are now with huge debt/huge leverage in the markets... all of these things like Newhall Land are cummulative. Maybe Newhall isn't a good investment. The genuis of Leon Cooperman, like the genuis of many other people here, is the genius of a rising market that hides many sins and much temporizing. Bascially, there are 10X....25x....100x number of people playing the same game as Leon now. Leon won. Leon became a classic. Leon was an investor of "genuis". 25 years ago there were Leon and his buddies. 25 years ago there were only two teams on the field and now there are hundreds. The great leveller here Henry is that everyone wants to get out of the South Bronx like Leon and they all want to be Leon. However... Investment returns revert to the mean. Right? ...at that we are now faced with a cyclical contraction of capital. I hope that you are a contrarian. Because what is coming down the tracks here isn't what has come down the tracks before. It's a different beast. My best to you, Clark Clark