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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Angell who wrote (30786)	10/16/1998 11:16:00 AM
From: waverider	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Paul, if the world economy continues in its downward spiral (this is exactly what Greenspan is fearing), then demand for oil will continue to go down. Low demand, low price. Look at what happened to GLM. This is not a joke. People in the industry are worried for good reason. The big companies WILL cut back on fabs and new construction. FGII is at risk here in a big way. That is why Teddy is right. On the oil service sector in general, we have just retested the previous bottom. This is exactly what I wrote would happen here in early September when I was flamed off this board. Those who understood technical analysis have saved their capital. Those who allowed wishful thinking to influence their investment decisions lost their capital. It was a slam dunk. Now that the bottom has been retested, should one get in? At this point, confirmation of the uptrend must be established before a definite answer can be found. As for myself, I covered my last short/put this morning in the sector so I think there is more short term upside possibility than downside. But I stress, SHORT TERM. If oil stays here or returns to sub $13, this sector could be a very bad place to be over the next year or so. Long term advantages aside, I would rather make interest money in cash than watch my "long term" investments lose another 20-30%. Good Luck, <H>