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To: Real Man who wrote (8788)	10/16/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: Joseph G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

I know ... did so in the '73 bear rally They don't call them suckers for nothing -g-

To: Real Man who wrote (8788)	10/16/1998 9:31:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

I think you have to look at the Bollinger Bands associated with the relevant moving averages. On a 34 week=170 day basis SPX bounced off the lower band after going through it. This type of move usually results in the price or index going full way to the upper band which currently is around 1180 - the previous high. So my guess is that there will be a second strong bounce at 1180 and the true 1998-99 crash will commence. Also the big tech stocks won't participate so strongly in this rally. I got NSM and PPOD for example which both did well Friday. These were both below book value at the beginning of this rally. Whereas AAPL like DELL etc. did nothing. My biggest position is SWY which also did well Friday. The RUT was up 2.4% So the nature of this rally may be to bring the smaller cap stocks back in line with SPX/OEX stocks so that they then can all go down together. That's my current theory. Till Monday <g> David