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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (31820)	10/16/1998 6:16:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

The "two tumbles and a jump" and "three steps and a stmuble" of Fosback have to do with either cutting or raising anyof the three: 1. discount rate 2. margin rate 3. reserve requirement (see Stock Market Logic 38-43) Fosback claims the "Two Tumbles and a Jump" as "first proclaimed by the author in 1973." Fosback's evidence is convincing that at least through 1981 this indicator has almost without exception predicted a rising market. It even worked in the middle of the 1929 collapse, predicting a 28% rally before the resumption of the phenomenal final decline. Anyone who jumped on the bandwagon yesterday, then, may well turn out to be correct for a few more months. On the other hand, he lists yields on stocks of under 3% as having a 0% probability of resulting in a rising market a year later. We have been at levels half of this 0% level. With these mixed signals I am going to stay put in BEARX and take my lumps if we are off to the races again. If the Fed has indeed succeeded in merely inflating the old balloon, I'll just have to find a way to get even shorter at the top. I have not reasoned out whether the fact that Fosback's figures mostly come from a gold-standard era makes any difference, and if so, how. Comment and discussion and criticism warmly invited on all points above!

To: bearshark who wrote (31820)	10/17/1998 8:52:00 AM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Bearshark, <<Eventually there will be a bear market. I plan to play that fully. >> I still can't believe that some people on this thread are STILL waiting for a bear market. We just had one over the past four or five months. It now looks like breakouts on HEAVY volume has occurred. Yes, Gould, Zweig, etc have models that say the Dow is worth this or that it si worth that...BUT those models fail to take into effect the supply/demand realility that has allowed many of the big caps to get to rediculous valuations. At the end of July, I posted on this thread for everyone to get the F*&% out of the market. In mid September, I posted that some bottom fishing looked like a good idea...anyone wanna buy my book? Paulo PS...having said all of that, I think that we are in the midst of a bear market rally...but why not enjoy it while it lasts.