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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paxb2u who wrote (6653)	10/17/1998 3:52:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Are you saying that because a lot of people don't care, don't know, don't understand, or are naive about the markets that will boost them ??? No, I don't think so, however, I am unsure of exactly what I am saying with respect to the above. I do think that at some point those people will decide to get out and I wonder what it will take. Maybe it is I that doesn't understand. Maybe all these people will just leave there money in the market come hell or high water. I don't know. It was more ramblings than any coherent piece. Just trying to make sense of how all of this fits together. The statement that got that started was that the mutual funds are using this bull run to get out of the market. I read that in a couple places on SI and I just don't beleive that. Mutual funds are usually by their nature fully invested and the only way they "get out" is when their clients, the individual investors, exit the funds. I don't see individual investors fleeing for the exits while the markets are going up. Doesn't make sense. Maybe not tomorrow, but how about next year??? Are you suggesting that the AFC will win the Super Bowl again this year? Man, I hope that isn't the case.....:)....unless, of course, Dallas represents the NFC! (apologies to Nemer....) -Scott

To: Paxb2u who wrote (6653)	10/17/1998 6:20:00 PM
From: R. Gates	Respond to of 44573

<<...but I do think the retribution has only been delayed...>> Couldn't agree more! Thursday and Friday's bounce could be seen as a bull correction in a bear market that began in July. IMO, this is exactly the case. Sure we'll get some pops from AG trying to prop up the whole world through the Fed and the IMF, but Asia, Russia, South America, Japan are hurting far too badly for AG's market psychology games to have a lasting effect. When the Nikkei started to tumble from 40,000 in 1990, the Japanese government starting cutting rates to prop up the market. It worked...for a few months but it still hasn't recovered. The Fed will cut and cut again. But each cut will have less effect once people realize that the Fed action alone will not move the world out of a recession (and depression, in some cases). I expect to see the 30 year bond at 3% before next March. IMO, the 15 year bull market ended in July 1998 and we will have many bull corrections to the new bear market but it is inevitable that the DOW will slide down far below the 7400 level soon enough... R. Gates