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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zardoz who wrote (1642)	10/17/1998 8:04:00 PM
From: Bill Murphy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81054

Hutch, That is the spirit. Nothing like a little crossfire. I come from a different specie. The essence of that specie is that there is a normal very big supply/ demand deficit in gold. The demand for gold, even with the asian slowdown, ex exogenous supplies of gold provided by central banks, far exceeds supply. That excess supply,which recently has been pre Emu central bank selling has, or will, end soon. Even the bears ( many months ago ) said it would end by Jan 1, 1999. Forget everything else. Just understand that. Excess supply drying up, at worst, in a number of weeks. Then you have all the shorts that have borrowed gold, as a cheap source of financing, in deep trouble. Nobody paid attention to the S and L problem until it blew up. You are looking at the same thing here. I said here in this very forum that the yen would go to 125 before 150 when it was at 144. I was derided by most saying that Armstrong said differently but promised goodies if I was right. No one sent me any goodies. I am disappointed. The shorts are too big for their own good. When gold starts to go, they cannot deliver that much gold in such a short period of time. It is sat nite and I cannot go into the whole deal. I do that in my cafe, www.lemetropolecafe.com. Check into the library for past commentaries. I say in this commentary what is going on. Those that do not understand that our government is desperate to keep the price down,will not see the forest thru the trees regarding gold. Yes, if you do not not know this, one can say gold acts very poorly for what is going on in the world. You are right. If you know what I know, you say it acts great, and the pressure cooker is building. Le Metropole members know I have told them that the Japanese AND Chinese are buying gold and I have told them why. I have also told them why our government is desperate to try and control a price rise. Have a date for a change. Have to go. Hope your weekend is a good one. All the best, Bill Murphy

To: Zardoz who wrote (1642)	10/20/1998 12:03:00 PM
From: sea_urchin	Respond to of 81054

Hutch --- Re upside and downside potential for the gold price. I can mention to you that the average value given by a selection of multiple regression models, which I do, has the price range for gold between $348 and $282 --- at the present values of the various currencies. These POG values represent the p=0.9 probabilities in regression equations using up to nine different currencies and with data going back up to 20 years. Historically, on the models, values of POG more extreme than this are most unlikely. According to these parameters, with the present POG at about $295, the downside is actually very limited.