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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JZGalt who wrote (10890)	10/18/1998 11:11:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42804

<<I understand the ASND analogy, but their Cascade acquisition was completely misunderstood as the driver into the WAN market.>> Exactly. The GX550 was announced in October 1997, and was in Beta during the period ASND fell to low $20s. The product was a year ahead of anything else in the market. I could see it would be big, and that there was a new carrier buying cycle beginning. The contracts started rolling in in January with Williams Co. <<Perhaps the Fiber Driver is a big deal, perhaps it is just another "me too" product. >> Me too? This product is unique in the market place. Who else can use a fiber pair as TWO fiber lines? Not LU. Not Ciena. Not NT. Not Pirelli. Who else has point to multi-point DWDM, with routing, switching and cross-connects entirely in the optical domain? No-one. This is new, unique and innovative technology. The emphasis by others up to now has been in having the most wavelengths (40, 80 96, etc), but only point-to-point. MRVC doesn't need to match those levels to be successful with this new technology. If MRVC just had this and was planning to run solo with it, as in the past, I wouldn't be anywhere near as excited. But in the Q2 CC AND in the earnings warning CC they emphasized strategic partners - which is exactly what they need to get this technology visible and selling in the market place. Add in their terabit router by mid-1999 and you have a full next generation solution. At $5-$6 dollars, we are selling under cash. How much downside risk is left? How much upside potential, A) in the next 6 months, B) in the next 2 years? How many larger companies might want this technology for their own? For example, this would allow INTC to strongly compete with CSCO, LU, NT. I think this technology will get MRVC noticed - big time. Time will tell.