To: Clint E. who wrote (18072 ) 10/19/1998 1:32:00 AM From: space cadet Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 69791
Clint, you have always stressed being flexible and I think that is definitely your number one attribute. Getting too in love with a stock or a position or a forecast is the recipe for suicide usually, unless you lucked out and the stock you fell in love with was named dell or msft or csco. I just looked up Favors email and he is definitely beginning to hedge his bets. Gone completely is all mention of any figure below 7000. He doesn't admit he was wrong or anything- he just doesn't even bring it up. It's as if he never said it, when in actuality he mentioned his bearish prognosis for everyday for the past month till today. He is now stressing that the Dow is extremely overbought on the 5 day RSI indicator. I agree and I see, like Favors, a short term high on the 22 approximately. However I don't see us falling much after that, just maybe a couple hundred dow points, and then probably continuing this earnings related rally. Probably we rally as usual till dell's earnings, and then the market will reassess the situation in light of how earnings look next quarter. If I had to guess I would say we would trade in the 8000's for the next couple of months. Favors also now says, for the first time, that his indicators predict a low either at Oct 28 or Nov 6. If at that time 7400 hasn't been broken then he plans on going completely long. So in general he sounds extremely confused and unconfident. I think he knows that his 15 minutes of fame is just about used up here. I now wish I hadn't paid so much credence to his ballgazing as my record following gurus is uniformly horrible. And precisely for the reason you mentioned- they get inflexible and can't respond quickly to changed conditions. In short, Favors now appears to be hedging his bets and preparing to go long. I just wish he, like Acampora had said this the Thursday before last and not now, 700 points higher. Incidentally, Clint, since I've missed out on a lot of easy money lately, are there any stocks you still like here? I'm thinking that some of the small caps are still relatively cheap here. Some I am considering are cien, cymi, adpt, mrvc, kea, ortl. Msft, ibm and emc report on Tuesday so I expect Tuesday and Wednesday to be straight up days. Do you agree? I'm not sure how Monday will be but Japan is up over 3.5% as of now, so it probably will be up too. So probably Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning will be the time to grab some puts for a quick trade. PS I recently read Favors monthly newsletter. Apparently this time last year (before he was famous and before I followed him) he was bearish on the market when it collapsed but then he remained bearish for too long and lost his profits by missing the recovery rally. Well it looks like history has repeated itself... I'd say he's used up 14 of his 15 minutes at this point...