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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bong Lewis who wrote (18280)	10/18/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: jach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

IMO, CSCO may run into some tough times next qtr, many reasons: 1. Recent downgrade 2. Startups Extreme, Foundry, Packet Engines are taking some mkt share away from CAT5000 Enterprise line 3. ASND 550 and FORE ASX4000 have much better performance and scalability compared to old BPXs. Recently, ASND and FORE had won many large contracts but for csco, there were no recent announcements for BPXs. 4. In the SP area, NetCore, Avici and Juniper together with LU PacketStar are being tested for future deployment. This can take some mkt share away from CSCO in the SP area. In all these three major LOBs, csco seems to be really getting pressured at about the same time. 5. Adding to this is the asia softness combines with Europe tough sell that will happen very soon because of Alcatel and Ericsson aquisitions in data networking area. 6. Giants LU and NT are preparing full force to battle CSCO in the networking area. They would love to get only half the net margin CSCO gets as their businnes model as well as valuation is not based on the 35% net margin that csco used to get. If one just thinks about these facts, can be seen that CSCO has rough sailing ahead. As for LU, they'll do pretty well because their 4E and 5E switches are selling well (and CSCO does not have any competitive products in these area). And at the same time they are and can get new mkt share in the data area. In the data area, LU has PortMaster 4 and PacketStar IP Router that compete directly with major CSCO mkt segment. And, btw, adding to this is NT with their BAY products that can now compete in all mkt segments of csco except RAC. But that's also changed, becasue NT acquired Aptix and Aptix has a great RAC product. TLAB, IMO, two years from now without any DWDM type of new product transitions will be history.