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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (72950)	10/19/1998 3:53:00 PM
From: stock bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Chuzzlewit, just heard that IBM hit record high. Yet Dell is sitting at 57 +/-1, or so. Any comments as to why Dell is drifting around and not making a "meaningful" move up? After all, Michael Dell, and others at Dell, have essentially announced that Dell was going to make the quarter. Stock Bull

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (72950)	10/19/1998 5:21:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Chuzz- May I respectful add.... Production "quotas", as you are well aware, are artificial mechanisms to begin with....in my mind, while creating wealth for 3rd world countries (in the short-term), they also have the harmful effect that these countries do not diversify their economies...that they become too dependent on a high oil price in order to maintain a certain standard of living....Although I am not fully-informed on the Middle East, it appears that Middle Eastern countries have done a relatively good job of re-cycling (their artificially high) intake of "petrodollars" in the 1980's, 1990's (into education, building of other core competencies....) in other words, in creating a future where their countries will be, hopefully, less dependent on oil revenues to maintain national economic wealth.... Although I think one could classify OPEC's cartel at its height as basically producing a "giant tax" (or, an against-our-will aid package) on the rest of the world (for their region), it accomplished some important objectives ... raising millions out of poverty...and selfishly for Western countries, produced a larger consumer class for OUR goods....So higher oil prices were not ALL bad for Western economies (looking at the big picture, being all world citizens) in retrospect,during that time... I have more experience with the countries Mexico and Venezuela...They have done a poor job (if at all) in re-investing "petrodollars" for their people....since 1982, the standard of living has not gone up for the average Venezuelan......a short-term increase in the price of oil due to production controls (an artificial measure) would only suspend reality a little longer..that is, they need to divesify their economies, figure out what else they are good at (or better said, their comparative advantage....what they are least worst at...), and learn to produce wealth (and exportable products0 that are not tied to oil.... In my view, oil is the worst thing that could have happened to Venezuela...it has contributed to one of the most backwards-looking economic policies and mentalities in all of Latin America.....too much easy money for too many years......this (mentality) despite having a large class that are very knowledgable about the world, travel a lot, and frequent the U.S. (I say this, as I love the country and its people, have worked there, and I married a Venezuela)..The country needs to change BIG TIME (Mexico too).....and IMO, the realities of the marketplace are the only way this will change (the largesse mentality that many Venezuelans have developed over the years)..I am not advocating launching millions into poverty as a solution, I don't think that is an evitable outcome.....but without facing the market's discipline, I'm not confident that many 2nd and 3rd world oil producing nations will learn to look beyond this easy, quick source of revenue...... it is simply too easy for many countries to fall back to their old nasty habits... In my mind, supporting artifical prices (by limiting supplies) for oil in these countries ,is some ways, tantamount to supporting the former "artificial" systems in Asia that led to the mess its currently in.... In the long run, I think 1st world economies would be better off with these countries producing more world-class goods than just oil....it would contribute to their long-term stability and wealth, and ultimately, ours... Oops, gotta run..no time to edit...hope this came out alright!