I spotted another WSP NPV mistake. I made a typo which resulted in the capital cost
not being deducted. The corrected NPV/share is $7.65. Discounted for two more years
NPV/share is $6.32.
Here's Aber, check my numbers, I was very surprised at the result.
Start date bgn 2003 2003
Capital cost 875,000,000 875,000,000
Resource Carats 133,000,000 133,000,000
$/Carat 56 56
$/ton 199 199
Mine life yrs 22 16
Tons 37,400,000 37,400,000
Ton/yr 1,700,000 2,337,500
Revenue/yr 338,545,455 465,500,000
Shares 48,027,833 48,027,833
Study 46,000,000 46,000,000
Cost/ton 66 66
tax % 45 45
G&A 3,000,000 3,000,000
Cash 26,700,000 26,700,000
Marketing % 7 7
Gross margin/yr 223,345,455 308,225,000
Payback 4.19 3.04
Yr C 22yr C 16yr
2003 189,758,245 261,873,407
2004 172,507,496 238,066,734
2005 156,824,996 216,424,303
2006 142,568,178 108,212,152
2007 82,478,478 98,374,683
2008 64,803,717 89,431,530
2009 58,912,470 81,301,391
2010 53,556,791 73,910,356
2011 48,687,992 67,191,232
2012 44,261,811 61,082,939
2013 40,238,010 55,529,944
2014 36,580,009 50,481,767
2015 33,254,554 45,892,516
2016 30,231,412 41,720,469
2017 27,483,102 37,927,699
2018 24,984,638 34,479,726
2019 22,713,308
2020 20,648,461
2021 18,771,329
2022 17,064,844
2023 15,513,495
2024 14,103,177
NPV 316,789,266 501,578,398
126,715,706 200,631,359
NPV/Share 2.64 4.18
Yes that is $2.64 per share for a 22 yr mine life at 6,000,000 carats per year.
Or $4.18 per share for a mine life of 16 years at 8,000,000 carats per year.
Again discounted at 10%.
Where are the analysts coming up with $30 or $40? What am I missing?
Cheers
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