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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (22418)	10/21/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: Mark Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164687

Willaim, your post is brilliant.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (22418)	10/21/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164687

I agree that the downturn is probably over and it looks like up from here. that's not to say that the market won't have some days of profit taking and perhaps a re-test of the recent lows. But I don't think it will slide down further. The problems are mostly out in the open and whatever steps governments can take have been initiated to correct them. Mostly, (- more important than government intervention) the world economies have done enough adjustment to counter the downward momentum, IMO. While companies that fail to meet expectations are still getting punished, much of the wild irrationality has wound down. Good luck all!

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (22418)	10/21/1998 12:52:00 PM
From: Jay8088	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164687

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis - even if I don't agree with 70% of points made. If you have time, could you explain why you are buying these 100 times revenue internet stocks? And how does the 'fundamentalist' Mary Meeker justify them via DCF? Does she really believe it's exponential increase all the way?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (22418)	10/21/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 164687

Weak argument...hmm, perhaps flawed is a better word.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (22418)	10/21/1998 1:09:00 PM
From: JBL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164687

Wiliam, Thank you for taking time to answer. I would agree with your analysis if your description of Japan having bottomed out was accurate. Unfortunately, the truth is that Japan is in a tailspin. The banking situation has produced a monstruosity. A few annecdotes on banks : - stock holdings accounted for "at cost" instead of market value. - bad loans shuffled to affiliates with no reporting obligations. - widespread practise of extending credit to non profitable companies in order to avoid write-offs of bad loans. - technological level estimated to be below that of Latin American banks (risk assesment tools virtually non existent). The result : bad loans now estimated at $ 1 trillion dollars, huge over capacity in Asia, (exports to the Asean countries from Japan have dropped by 80 % from a year ago) and now that banks have been exposed, a credit crunch worthy of the 1930's coupled with accelerating bankrupcies. The recent spike in the Nikkei was due to the following : Greenspan's rate cut, voting of $ 500 billion in public funds to recapitalise banks, acceptance of one major bank today to use this fund, massive buying by public funds ahead of NTT's mobile phone division IPO scheduled for tomorow ($ 18 billion), relief that a meltdown was avoided, and perception that the US economy will remain strong in 1999. Now, what I think will happen is that the real economy in Japan will continue to deteriorate as the recapitalisation of banks (which can only happen if they open their books) will produce nasty surprises and won't be able to stop the credit crunch until domestic consumption resumes (this will not happen until at least a year from now). I can only let you imagine the consequences for the rest of Asia and the world. The Nikkei was around 16,500 before the recession was announced. It is now at 14,300, and has been artificially supported ever since. We are in a dangerous situation, and Rubin understands this. The best case scenario is really not that rosy for the world and the US economy. Sorry if I appear too pessimist. This is my honest opinion.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (22418)	10/21/1998 11:15:00 PM
From: e. boolean	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164687

William>>The US has abandoned the strong-dollar policy that was the straw that broke the back of smaller currencies abroad, and started this crisis to begin with. Rubin>>U.S. continues to support strong dollar NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The United States continues to support a strong dollar, said U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. Asked whether his recent statement that dollar policy remained unchanged suggested the U.S. continues to support a strong dollar, Rubin answered, ''That is correct.'' When asked specifically whether he supported dollar strength versus the Japanese yen and German mark, Rubin responded, ''Our policy is unchanged with respect to the dollar, period.'' The Treasury Secretary spoke to reporters after a dinner here sponsored by the Concord Coalition. Wednesday October 21, 10:05 pm Eastern Time ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ??e.b.