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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (3083)	10/21/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: Marty Rubin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

10:55 ET ****** (Briefing.com) PEOPLESOFT INC. (PSFT) 19 1/8 -6 5/8 Once a high flyer and a Wall Street darling, shares of enterprise application software provider is having a rough time this morning as Wall Street turns less bullish on its outlook. Not that this should be much of a surprise as the company had already suggested that the market had matured. Last night, PeopleSoft reported a Q3 net of $0.17 a share, in line with Wall Street estimate. And while revenues for the period increased 61.8% to $351.3 million, ahead of Wall Street estimates, license revenues rose only 30% to $147.3 million from $113.0 million, below Wall Street forecasts of 40%. In fact, this is the main reason the stock is getting crushed this morning as the more volatile global environment has prompted corporations to become more selective with their software spending. Already, the company had cautioned this past summer about slower mainframe sales hurting results, which caused the stock to swoon in July. Hence, with increased competition from established application software makers already nipping at its heels, Wall Street is now concerned that its key licensing revenue driver may be slowing to a rate that makes it difficult to recommend the stock. After all, this revenue line used to grow by 75% or more as recently as late last year. Following last night's earnings release, several brokerage firms have downgraded the stock this morning, along with lowering earnings expectations. It seems that PeopleSoft will no longer be on the recommended list of brokerage houses until it can again prove that it can grow its licensing revenue line by at least 35% or more on a consistent level. This may not happen until the global problems dissipate. Content provided by Briefing.com, a product of Charter Media. Copyright © 1998 Charter Media, Inc. All rights reserved.

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (3083)	10/21/1998 12:15:00 PM
From: gc	Respond to of 4509

"I congratulate you on your luck in trading this stock. But don't confuse that luck with special insight or skill. You still don't know what you are talking about." Well, Maybe you have insight and skill. Maybe I have luck but no insight and skill. If that makes me money, I'd rather have luck and not have insight and skill. Tell you what. I will continue star gazing. Oh, BTW, did I tell you that one of the stars was missing from the sky? <g> gc, PhD in Fortune Telling

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (3083)	10/21/1998 1:15:00 PM
From: LLCoolG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Chuzzlewit, Nice post. Funny how all your supposed fact and knowledge has led to a staggering 67% equity loss in 6 months. You look like a complete fool. To call that simple luck is no different than calling the astronomical valuation previous enjoyed by your equity balance luck as well. The knife cuts both ways. If he was lucky calling this debacle, you were just as lucky on the run up. Learn how to just shut your mouth when things don't go your way. You may keep some credibility. The sore loser always looks moronic. Warmest possible regards, G

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (3083)	10/22/1998 4:58:00 AM
From: Lutz Moeller	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

Chuzz, You wrote "The fundamentals of this company remain excellent. What has changed is the growth outlook. According to the company this is 25% - 35% over the next year or so, and they attributed the decline in growth to diversion of budgets to meet Y2K problems and the impact of a global slowdown. The company has an exceptionally strong balance sheet. The problem is one of valuation, which at this point is problematic because of the poor visibility going forward." I agree with your opinion. The funny thing is, SAP said in their report also something about slowing growth (reason asia) and loose just 5% stock value, where PSFT looses 23% stock value. Still SAP bare a much higher PE than PSFT. I wonder why the stock market acts so different on the same news. I hold PSFT since more than a year, bought around 30$, saw it rise above 50$ (didn't sell, was to greedy to get more $$$) and am now annoyed at 19,75$ a share these days (won't sell, do not accept loss). That is the bad part of the story. The good part is that I bought at a PE of 100 (think of it). As mentioned before, no company can grow 100% for long. Now we are in a range that can be sustained longer, and the downside risk diminished. From hindsight today would have been a better buy, but that's no art. I still like to own a highly profitable company with strong balance sheet in a growing industry at number 2 position (I also own #1 SAP)that has many good Years in front of it. I believe over the long time the stock price will (more or less, and only loosely coupled) follow the underlying business, that are sales and earnings. Show me a better company in this sector, then I may decide to sell. Otherwise I will hold for long! I cannot securely time the market, nor can I trade short term with success. I'm no gambler. I just can pick a fine company, watch it grow and wait. What more could an investor do? Lutz