Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (25573)	10/21/1998 6:39:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 70976

Teri--I agree with you re Fleck---I find him refreshing amongst a sea of 'dogs' trained by Pavlov (g). The thing about WS of course is that 'common sense' means nothing when one is going against the current trend. As such, even though I think Fleck is closer to the truth than many, I think that after a C wave down-possibly to new lows to shake everyone up--the mkt will make a new high in 99. My 2c----btw, the bulls are always saying to watch for fewer new lows on a retest or lower price low. Then they come out of their chalets and say 'well we had a successful test, did you see that there were fewer new lows this time' etc etc. ---I wonder if it works in reverse as a sell signal--The new highs on the NYSE peaked at 94 on the DJ's first rally from the 7400 low up to 8180ish in Sept. On the Greenspan surprise last Thursday, it peaked Fri at 60ish with the DJ at 8400. The last 2 days, with higher and higher prices we put on only 40ish new highs . ---the bulls of course will argue that this indicator should only be used to signal the end of drops not the end of rises since after all they get to change the rules the way they want to justify their position.

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (25573)	10/21/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hey, Teri! Where have you been? Hope things are good. As I said, my problem with Fleck is that he has been negative forever. That is what he does. He in the same town as me, so I think i can say I am familiar with his work before he went national. It seems to me that he was at least short since dow 4500 from what I remember. If he ever goes long, I will revise my opinion of him. To be short since 4500 or before thoroughly convinces me that I should ignore him. That is a long enough "chapter" for me. Sounds like chapter 11 in fact. Let me state for the 3rd time that he must be a terrific short buyer since he claims to be level with the market. That is awesome. I agree that the market is not cheap anymore. I think it was a screaming buy at 1350. That is naz 1350, although I was tempted to leave it at 1350 just for fun. Earnings growth is being overstated for 99. Do you remember my 1/98 projection for this year: it was flat 1998 earnings, and a high of dow 9200. I was pretty close. I'll take a better stab at 99 when we get to 99, but I am going to say 0-5% growth. After 2 poor years, it would not be surprising to return to double digit growth for 2-3 years, so I am optimistic on the long haul.

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (25573)	10/23/1998 3:29:00 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Teri:<<Like the declarations that new highs will be reached on the Dow over the next few months.... when the posters don't know that to be the case. No one can. Just ask Brinker (for one of many examples)...he got no one out of the market despite the fact that he runs a "market timing" news service. He even stated continually that he was "fully invested" while the Nasdaq corrected 31ish%, Dow over 20%.>> Well, you got Brinker's "market timing" half right which is not too bad. Not only did he advise not to sell, he advised to buy more during this correction. Just think how good you would feel now if you had heeded his advice? By the way, are you 100% sure of your Nasdaq and Dow correction percentages? I do not recall the Dow ever reaching or going over the 20% level. Jeff