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Technology Stocks : Asyst Technologies (ASYT) Good Value/Where is the Bottom? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (1135)	10/21/1998 5:44:00 PM
From: the hube	Respond to of 2313

Here's how I see it: Current market cap should now be about 11.2 million shares @ $8.50 per share, or $95 million. Subtracting the cash of $48 million leaves $47 million for the net non-cash assets less payables. They paid $23 million for Hine Design (cash plus payables assumed). If the stock price falls by $2, ASYT will be valued at approximately what they paid for Hine last June. With a burn rate of about $1.5 million per month, it doesn't look like they will run out of cash any time soon. Bottom line is if it drops on the announcement, I may just have to buy more. John

To: Michael Burry who wrote (1135)	10/21/1998 6:01:00 PM
From: advinfo	Respond to of 2313

Good Post Mike...I was also encouraged by the rapid acceptance/deployment of the SMART-Station and the marketing focus on existing fab upgrades. I can't wait to hear the CC. The earnings release alone gave me the impression that during this trough in the cycle, Asyst's savvy management is on a mission to maximize strength and efficiency. Good point about the book value impact from the buy back. The 11 million dollars spent(a VERY BULLISH action IMO) must have taken quite a few shares out of the already modest float. Long ASYT, NorthStar

To: Michael Burry who wrote (1135)	10/21/1998 6:03:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 2313

Hello Mike--good to hear from you again (aplx thread last year). I enjoy your web site.---re ASYT--1) the street is in a buying mood on depressed small caps at the moment. A lot of buyers waiting for the bad numbers before stepping in. The 'consensus' is that the seq's have seen their lows. So, stocks like COHU which surprised with a horrible qtr----AYST's was not really a 'surprise'-- bounced back to where they were before the surprise. LRCX refuses to revisit its low and then gets upgraded somewhat after a terrible qtr because the BTB suggested a turn in back end bookings. --2) ASYT laid off 23% of its workforce so its operating loss is worse than expected by analysts--revenue was actually $16 vs the 13-15 range forecasted last month. Their break even point is therefore likely close to the now depressed $16mm so that the Dec qtr cash operating loss may be much less than the $4 in Q3 ---3)For some reason, they paid for Hine entirely in cash so that the previously announced $10mm LTD portion was not incurred. Cleaner that way--no debt whatsoever now.---4) Net Net Working Capital (Cash+AR+Inv less ALL liabilities) is now $5.18. To that one can add another $1.53 in "prepaid expenses and other current assets" if one is so inclined as it forms part of accounting W/C. So, we have approx $7 in a liquid state at close to the bottom of the cycle. Contrast that with LRCX( now trading at $12 after today's upgrade) which is still incurring significant losses and has a LTD payment to face in 5 years such that its Net NET WC is only about $4.50.---One gets the idea here.---Bottom line, subject to the CC this evening-- I don' t think the stock will sell off materially even after the bump to $8.50. Too many people sense a turn is coming. I wouldn't be surprised if it closes higher tomorrow.